A new candidate is poised to enter the Presidential race, John Kerry. Long time political watchers may remember Kerry as a liberal Senator from Massachusetts who had an unsuccessful bid for the Presidency running on a platform of his 4 months service in Vietnam. The new John Kerry will enter the Presidential race running on a platform of healthcare and the economy.
The stories are all over the media. The old John Kerry is out and the new John Kerry is in. Call it a mid-campaign flip-flop. Whether Kerry can pull this off remains to be seen.
It is, of course, a tacit admission that the Swift Boat Veterans have won. When their story first broke, I said “this could change the whole campaign.” I was ribbed by a few people and dismissed, even mocked, by others. But what I wrote 4 months ago in defense of that statement was dead on:
…the reason I thought it was so big was because this man has based his whole campaign on the fact he spent 4 months driving a boat in southeast Asia 30 years ago.
If that gets pulled out from under him what exactly does he run on?
Kerry, foolishly, has all of his campaign eggs in one basket.
…
I
Some reactions:
The money issue for Kerry can be mitigated by those “uncordinated” 527’s releasing some new ads.
Mainstream media will use the “been there, done that” lie to negate the SwiftVets and aid the Kerry camp into turning them into a negative issue for Bush. Remeber, Clinton people believe in “triangulation,” and the press loves working for them. There either needs to be something new and solid on the issue, or the focus should be wholly on Kerry’s anti-war antics, making him distasteful. The medals controversy can help if there’s meat there.
Kerry IS the problem with the dems, there’s a good chance he’ll blow whatever new strategy they employ. But new jobs and employment numbers, along with any significant economic news is going to drive events into the Fall.
There were seven Marines killed in Iraq today. If that trend continues through the fall and any significant economic news is bad, Bushis in trouble.
FInal analysis, the only thingto do is to keep the focus on Kerry and keep it negative. But that is going to require a series of reasonably new or news worthy attacks spread through the Fall to be effective. If someone is sitting on that dirt, they already know the plan. If they aren’t, thsithing is going to be a serious slugfest until the end.
Aside from the fact JFnK isn’t from New York, I don’t see much to argue with here.
I agree that a post-convention substitution — what amounts to a self-Torching — is a bad plan for Kerry, and I don’t think the Big Media hand is very strong at all this cycle. People who would claim all they know is what they read in the paper or see on TV news have still found out all about the stuff those media have refused to cover. That grinding sound you hear isn’t the teeth of John Kerry, Terry McAwful, or Peter Jennings; it’s a paradigm shifting without a clutch (got that from a Dilbert comic strip).
I hate to say it, but people dying in a war zone isn’t going to cost Bush all that much politically — most people do live in a post-9/11 world where war is hell and their response to such news is “Yes, what’s you’re point?” As long as matters over there don’t go to hell in a hurry, Bush is okay.
Which goes back to another major weakness of Kerry and the Dems: increasingly, their only hope for victory in November is that Americans suffer wall-to-wall death and misery for the next two months.
Karma can be a bitch.
New York?
WTF was I typing?!?!?!
Thanks Mcgehee I have no idea what possessed me to type that other than I wrote it at like 3am.
The Democrats are going to campaign on the economy and jobs until the election. It’s the only thing they can do, because it looks like no one’s willing to trust Kerry on the war, and they’re certainly not going to win on charm — the candidate is a drip. I haven’t seen one Democrat commercial that has Kerry in it — but maybe I’m not watching the right channels.
The problem is, that though it’s true that the economy and jobs consistently poll highest on the list of voters concern, they’re also issues the public are most likely to scoff at when politicians say they have a plan. The Democrats will get little traction on this.
“Meet the new flop…
Same as the old flip…”
J.
John Kerry to the Swifties: “Bring. It. On.” Except not, apparently.
Let’s not forget about tort reform. I think Edwards will be a bigger factor than most people are recognizing right now, when the ‘pubs start slamming on medical malpractice and disappearing doctors. This will effectively counter any healthcare charges by Kerry, I believe.
Edwards is also a complete political rookie, and just as there is a tank in Kerry’s future, I think there will be a potatoe in Edwards’.
Finally, I don’t think Swiftgate is going away. I think Kerry better start worrying as much about ending up in Martha’s mansion as in the Oval Office. The Navy doesn’t screw around with the kinds of things coming out about Kerry, and there are many, many witnesses. Kerry’s going to have some ‘splainin’ to do. I can see the hearing coming, and hear the dems wailing about it being a Bush administration dirty trick. Nevertheless, the military has no choice but to investigate due to Judicial Watch’s complaint.
The Associated Press is releasing a number of stories on Bush’s National Guard record — mostly old ground and conjecture. Today, AP’s Mark Kelley resurrected one story and I wrote to AP to tell them I’m hip to their game. Here’s what I wrote:
So what are you guys going to do until election day? Keep writing about Bush’s National Guard service? What about doing a little investigation into Kerry’s background. For instance, was he in Cambodia or was he near Cambodia or was he there on Christmas or was he there in January? If everything Kerry says is true, then was he a war criminal? He said he committed atrocities.
Also, US Naval regulations are specific about awarding Purple Hearts and these medals are not awarded for self-inflicted (intention or unintentional) wounds. Should Kerry return his first Purple Heart? Should he go back to Vietnam and finish his tour? He did leave after only completing 4 months and 12 days in Nam. He owes Uncle Sam almost 8 months.
You people are unbelievable. You claim no partisan bias yet your coverage looks as if you’re nothing more than the newsletter for the DNC. Shame on you.
Kerry put all his campaign EGG in one basket.
SwiftBoat vets’ mine exploded under his basket.
Egg now on face.
No bleeding.
No purple heart will be awarded for self-inflicted loss of presidential campaign.
There is still the POW/MIA issue to come which is part of Kerry’s political career while tying in nicely with the Vietnam issue.
When the left are asked about John Kerry’s achievements, many mention the fact he was chairman of the Senate Select Committee on POW/MIA affairs.
However, it seems from here that he spent some time there covering up the POW MIA issue, and then tried to get the trade embargo lifted with Vietnam. Didn’t his brother (was this the same one who was caught breaking into Kerry’s opposition offices?) have some $400 million deal with Vietnam in the pipeline when this was going on?
Sheesh, for all the BS about Afghan pipelines and Iraqi oil, you would have thought Michael Moore might have at least dedicated a 30 minute special to Kerry’s dealings.