Presidential Elections are not determined at the National Level, they are won or lost at the state level.
Obama’s overall approval does not bode well for his re-election (44% and falling), but on a state by state basis it’s worse. Far worse.
Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
By Conn Caroll | The Washington Examiner
Gallup released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers yesterday, and the results should have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue very worried. If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent), Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215.
A lot can happen between now and November, but this does not look good for Teh One.