Obamacare Chances

Tonight I can’t help but be thinking about the chances that Obamacare is rammed through the house using any number of dubious means. Glenn Reynolds links to this article from The Hill, where Stupak claims that the Democrats are 16 votes short in the house.

Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) said Monday he thinks House Democratic leaders are not close to having the votes to pass health reform.

In an interview with Fox News’ Greta Van Susteren, the anti-abortion rights lawmaker said, “I’d be surprised if they have 200 votes.”On the other hand, I’ve been watching Intrade and continue to be pessimistic.

intradechart.png

I can already hear the comments that predictive markets aren’t predictive and that people like Soros can play the market to try to influence public opinion. But on the other hand, markets like Intrade have been useful predictors in the past. I’m hoping it is wrong this time.

Convince me it is in the comments and I will sleep better.

Might we juxtapose a moment?
Obama Unhinged In Ohio