HomePoliticsIt's going to be a long nightIt's going to be a long night Paul October 31, 2004 Politics 8 CommentsAs of 11:17est this link says it’s going to be a long, long night. WOW!So does this one. Welcome The MegaPundit Jay Tea announces his endorsement Related PostsA Second Brief Question Ralph Nader – Conservative Hero!!Congress And BlogsAbout The Author Paul8 Comments Spoons October 31, 2004 As of 10:57 CST, both links are broken. RadCap October 31, 2004 I don’t know if this is interesting or not, but the links are BOTH dead. Has someone reconsidered their position? meep October 31, 2004 If you look, each has extra characters at the end. There’s a %22 on the end of the first, and a colon on the end of the second. I’m sure if you strip those off, they’ll work. Lastango October 31, 2004 The Long Night could turn out to be like the Fierce Afghan Winter. RadCap October 31, 2004 Yes – taking out the extra characters did the trick.As the KerrySpot indicates (and as the chart on WaPo corroberates), the ‘closing’ of the race is not a change in opinions, but a change in the sample poll. Weekends apparently swing against Repubs and towards Dems because the same people being polled on the weekdays are not available on the weekends. In 2002, there was the same phenomenon, and come election day, the supposed ‘closing of the gap’ seen on the weekend did not materialize in reality (ie in the votes).So this is a statistical shift, not an actual one. Come tuesday things will have bush back up again (as measured in votes, not polls).http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200410311153.asp Paul October 31, 2004 SighFor whatever weird reason, my browser started inserting weird characters at the end of URLs. I’ve been bit 3 times in 3 days by this trick. They should be fixed. rls October 31, 2004 Not for me it won’t be a long night. Polls for the east close at 6 pm central time, and shortly thereafter Bush will be declared winner in BOTH FL & PA. This will entail a call for a Bush win and the snowball rolling down the hill will result in an avalanche. The dems in the west will not even bother to go to the polls, except for some isolated local issues.The only reason I hesitate to call NJ for Bush is the large margin that Gore carried that state in 2000. My prediction is 329 EV/53% PV (and I think that is low). Sort of conservative on my part. Evidence is many factors two of which is the amount of $ being placed on Bush to win in British bookie joints (4 to 1 over Kerry) You know, that is $ where your mouth is polling with NO BIAS by pollsters or MSM. Add to that the 4-5 hour wait in line at early voting loci in TX & GA (Bush by 17 in GA & up by 22 in TX) and you get an idea of the GOP base that is coming out. I doubt seriously if Kerry voters (most of whom do NOT like Kerry) are going to be standing in line for that length of time to vote.We tend to forget that the MOE in these polls can go BOTH ways. Polls showing Bush up by 3-4 points could mean Bush up by 7-8 points.Y’all make my prediction come true and get out there and vote – if you haven’t already. Jim October 31, 2004 RadCap, excellent point! I did some help with Republican polling at the NJ GOP headquarters. I did it on a Saturday. And when I called the people on the polling list, the vast majority of them weren’t home.By the way, a big surprise, the Liberal New York Daily News endorsed George W. Bush. Maybe they didn’t get their daily dose of Kool Aid. LOL.