OK, it’s only a couple of days until the elections, so I figure I better give my predictions on how it’s going to turn out. Everyone else is, it seems, so I might as well jump on the bandwagon.
First off, let me explain my methodology:
I have none.
I don’t care enough about electoral predictions to invest very much thought or analysis or investigation or research into the matter. So I ignore polls, surveys, trends, and the like. I just bounce numbers around inside my head until something just feels “right,” then stick with those figures.
It’s occasionally served me well. Back in August of 1988, I predicted the presidential election within one percentage point. I was way off on the electoral count, but that sort of thing requires a bit more homework than I ever felt like doing.
So, without naming any names or citing any particular races or discussing issues or polls, my gut hunch says the Democrats will make gains in both Houses — but insufficient to take either. I’ll say they’ll net two Senate seats and six House seats.
OK, I’ll discuss one race. Lieberman will trounce Lamont, sending the Nutroots elements into newly-discovered heights of hysteria.
If anyone else would like to make utterly unscientific, unsubstantiated, unfounded electoral predictions, have at ’em. If you are inclined to discuss specifics and issues and why candidate X HAS to win or Y simply has no chance, take it somewhere else. There are plenty of other fora out there for those kind of arguments — this posting is strictly for fun.
GOP keeps both houses.
Jay – I’m all in favor of Bush vetoing Democratic legislation throughout the final two years of his term. It’ll make electing a Democratic president in ’08 all that much easier.
And while that concept isn’t sophisticated in the last, it’s no surprise you don’t get it.
OK I’ll bet on “No Pass”. Since everyone is basically saying the same thing, maybe I can win by betting against the “conventional wisdom” on this one.
Senate all incumbants hold their seats.
Rep change +0
Dem change -1
ind change +1
House Repubs gain 2 or 3 seats.
HA HA HA you say. Well, I believe that nobody has caught on to the fact that the polls are no longer very accurate (especially early polling) Many conservatives don’t trust the pollsters whom they regard as an extention the the MSM. They are not participating in polling or even answering in a deceptive way (Creepy liars!). I think this may translate into a 10% false bias toward the Dems. Some of that false bias shakes itself out when you get a controverys like the Kerry comments. But, in the end, it is behind the polling curtain where the truth comes out. I need only point to 2004 as evidence of this crazy theory of mine. Not very many pollsters caught the election day swing back to reality because even exit polling numbers were all screwed up.
A word to the conservative majority who seem to frequent this site: do you really think holding onto both houses of Congress — staying the political course — is in the best interests of this country? Putting aside the “us vs. them” attibute and uncivil demagoguery for a moment, consider what many people in this country are pondering right now: Republic majorities are likely to mean a continuation of pork-laden deficit spending, no end in sight to a continued protracted war in Iraq, the very real possibility of appointing another Supreme Court justice who would like to overturn Roe v. Wade. Is this what you are hoping for?
Do you not agree that the last time we had any kind of fiscal responsibility in this country was in the last decade, built upon budgets submitted by the last administration. Do you really think Republicans in the White House and in both houses of Congresss have put us on a better course?
all this “clown talk” is a real bore, none of it reads as especially clever. it’s so “i’m a republican, come hell or highwater” (ish). aren’t you embarrassed?
what has this congress accomplished that you’re so eager to endorse? is it the passage of the military commisions act (and denial of an enemy combatant’s universaly recognized–for the last 900(+) years–right of habeus corpus), the 9 TRILLION dollar federal deficit, or the scandal, shameless corruption and efforts to cover them up (i could name names)? why on earth would you want to maintain the satus quo? and what’s with name calling the people who pray to goodness that something changes!
by the way, usmc pilot, my father was a usmc pilot, too, colonel. he didn’t suffer fools or republicans gladly, especially fools in a position to put marines in the line of fire without the means needed to win and no plan for exit. especially, never served a combat day in their lives fools!
sorry, jay, i know i’m way too serious for this site. it’s such a hot bed of rabid republicans and i’d really like to hear some serious answers. no clown talk, please. i really want to know.
sorry for bringing the party down. eak.