The Kerry Theory is that there is an inverse relationship between the level and reach of Kerry media coverage and his standing in the polls. In simple English – less Kerry equals better polling numbers, more Kerry equals worse polling numbers. The other day I pointed out that liberal and conservative media organizations were both claiming an excellent week for Bush after a few months of nothing but bad news. Of course former President Reagan passed away and both campaigns voluntarily adopted a week log moratorium on campaigning.
Today the first new poll in weeks came out today:
LA Times – Voters shift in favor of Kerry (Registration required – you can get an ID at BugMeNot)
The Kerry theory holds.
At first blush, I wouldn’t say that this poll doesn’t necessarily demonstrate the “Kerry theory” because it was last Saturday through Tuesday. While it included a few days of Bush’s good week, the snap shot is a bit early for the good week to congeal in voter’s minds. (The Tenet resignation led the headlineslast Friday; sending the public into the weekend with that last taste of Bush in their mouths) If another poll taken this Saturday through Tuesday showed similar results, I’ll concur that the theory appears to hold.
This poll would seem to better capture that snapshot.
I heard somebody picking this poll apart and suggesting that the sample was weighted too heavily in favor of Democrats to be representative. Something about the margins of the two candidates among Democrats, Republicans and independents.
Apparently the same poll finds that Bush leads with independents and has a bigger margin among Republicans than Kerry has with Democrats. So how it can be that Kerry is leading overall is hard to credit unless they included a disproportionate number of Democrats in the sample.
It’s permissible to do that but you have to weight the overall results to reflect the real-world balance between Dems and Republicans. And it sounds like the L.A. Puppy Trainer‘s pollster didn’t do that.