Updates, the Flynn Persecution and Election Models

Judge Sullivan Goes All In

He just can’t let it go, and has requested an en banc review by the DC Court of Appeals.

Judge Sullivan Files Petition with Appeals Court for “Rehearing En Banc” of Decision Ordering Him To Dismiss Case Against Gen. Flynn

By shipwreckedcrew, Red State

Earlier today Judge Emmet Sullivan’s attorney, Beth Wilkinson, filed with the Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit a Petition for Rehearing En Banc of the matter involving the Petition for Writ of Mandamus filed by Gen. Michael Flynn.

What this means is that Judge Sullivan is asking the entire appeals court — 11 judges — to rehear and decide anew the Petition filed by Gen. Flynn seeking a “writ of mandamus” to be issued to Judge Sullivan directing him to grant the government’s motion to dismiss the case against Gen. Flynn without further proceedings.  The government has moved to dismiss the case under Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 48(a), which states that any such dismissal by the government can only be don with “leave of court.”  The dispute involves that authority does the “leave of court” provision give a district court to 1) review the reasons offered by the government, and 2) deny the motion if the Court is not persuaded by or in agreement with those reasons.

An apolitical court would deny the motion.  I suspect the DC court will grant an en banc review, further delaying justice.

 

About Those Election Models

Our own DJ Drummond, in his Election Models post from July 2nd, discusses Professor Norpoth’s model.  The good Professor just doubled down:

Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump’s chances in 2020

Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth says Trump has a 91% chance of winning in November

By Joseph A. Wulfsohn, FOX News

Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his “Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two [25 of 27] in the past 108 years [since the Primary Election method was introduced].

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”

As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.

The worst of the Pandemic Effects (amplified or moderated by State and Local responses) have been in the deepest of blue enclaves, as have the riots.  This may or may not cause the blue districts to turn out in force.  It guarantees that the red districts will.

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