Odds Favor Hillary Clinton Winning

The odds favor Hillary Clinton becoming the next President of the USA. That is according to the odds as of the morning of September 8th.

Election Betting Odds (presented by Maxim Lott and John Stossel) gives Clinton a 68.7% chance of winning.

That is up from 67.8% as of September 6th.

These odds originate from the UK-based Betfair.com.

Pivit shows Clinton’s odds of winning to be at 62%.

Presidentialelectionodds.net gives puts Clinton’s odds of winning at 69%.

Granted, some people never want to be told the odds.

As a caveat, Nate Silver warns about the possibility of polling errors as a result of a significantly-high percentage of voters being undecided.

“Many voters — close to 20 percent — either say they’re undecided or that they plan to vote for third-party candidates. At a comparable point four years ago, only 5 to 10 percent of voters fell into those categories.

High numbers of undecided and third-party voters are associated with higher volatility and larger polling errors. Put another way, elections are harder to predict when fewer people have made up their minds.

Because FiveThirtyEight’s models account for this property, we show a relatively wide range of possible outcomes, giving Trump better odds of winning than most other statistically based models, but also a significant chance of a Clinton landslide if those undecideds break in her favor.”

At centerforpolitics.org, James E. Campbell reports, “Based on the distributions of out-of-sample errors for previous elections, the Convention Bump and Economy’s probability of correctly forecasting that Clinton will receive more than 50% of the national popular two-party vote is 75%.”

Keep in mind that the POTUS isn’t elected by a national popular vote, but rather by the electors chosen to represent each state in the Electoral College.

Article II Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution states, “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress.”

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