Another Take on Election 2016

I found this interesting.  I’ve no intention of betting the farm on it.

Wargaming the Electoral College

By Steven Vodkapundit Green, Vodkapundit



You’ve probably seen the above map already, or ones very much like it, showing Hillary Clinton’s prohibitive lead in the Electoral College. In my previous Wargaming column from four weeks ago, Clinton’s worst-case scenario gave her a squeaker 273-265. And that, I must reiterate, was her worst-case outcome as of just four weeks ago.

But then Donald Trump went to Mexico in what might prove to have been a game-changer. It is already at the very least a direction-changer — if the massive newWaPo/SurveyMonkey poll is to be believed

Not very good terrain for the Trump mobile.  But have things changed?

Let’s look at the maps based on that poll of nearly 75,000 voters.


First, a caveat. SurveyMonkey’s poll is only of Registered Voters, and this close to Election Day you really want to start whittling your results down to likely voters. Here’s what SurveyMonkey said about it:

This Washington Post-SurveyMonkey 50-state poll was conducted online Aug. 9 – Sept. 1 among 74,886 registered voters. The sample was drawn among the respondents who completed user-generated polls using SurveyMonkey’s platform during this period, and results are weighted to match demographic characteristics of registered voters in each state. No margins of sampling error are calculated, as this statistic is only applicable to randomly sampled surveys.

That aside, the sheer size of the sample plus SM’s weighting method ought to be more than enough to lend credence to their numbers.

When I began the 2016 Wargaming series in July, I showed you Trump’s “northern route” to 270, taking the fight through PA, OH, MI, WI, and MN. By August that route had appeared to have closed. But if we look at SurveyMonkey’s results from the four-way race (GOP, Dem, Libertarian, Green) we see that that route may have re-opened.

In the map above, I’ve colored states where either Trump or Clinton has at least a four-point lead over the other. The results look much like they did two months ago, with Clinton comfortably above 200, and Trump uncomfortably well below 150.

Maybe.  I, for one, have no desire to see the Clinton Criminal Family return to the White House.  Here is where it gets interesting:

But let’s look a little deeper.

But what about those elusive Likely Voters — the voters who actually, you know, vote? It’s a well-established political fact that pool of Likely Voters lean more Republican than the broader field of Registered Voters, typically by two to four points.

So what if I were to put my thumb of SurveyMonkey’s scale, and spot Trump three points across the board?



Very interesting indeed.  How likely?  I have no idea, and I’m painfully aware that I may be mistaken.

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