The Unrepresented

Ed Driscoll, writing at Instapundit links to an interesting article:

Republicans Have Overestimated the Conservatism of the Base

By David French, National Review

I live in Donald Trump country. Maury County, Tenn. — like much of the South — [it] was dominated by the Democratic party until just a few short years ago. Tennessee’s legislature didn’t flip red until 2008, and my own legislative district in my own “conservative” county was blue until 2010. Tennessee didn’t change dramatically between 2004 (when Democrats were in total control of state government) and 2011 (when control flipped to Republicans), but national politics changed. And — as Donald Trump is proving — they can change again. If there is a consistent refrain among former Democrats (and there are lots in the South), it echoes Ronald Reagan: They didn’t leave the Democratic party; the Democratic party left them….

Mr. French identifies these former Democrats as the base of the Republican Party.  I do not agree.  He also identifies them as the base of Trump’s support, which is more supportable and which has been discussed here before.

The interesting and useful portion of Mr. French’s article is his analysis of the areas from which Trump draws his support:

160115_Trump Support Map

These are the areas of the country which King Barrack has alienated.  There is no longer any real question of  Trump’s viability as a Presidential Candidate (though valid questions remain as to his suitability for office).  The real and immediate question is can he gain the Republican Nomination.

Indeed, as the New York Times noted, a significant portion of Trump’s support comes from “a certain kind of Democrat,” and he currently stands ready to pull up to 20 percent of Democratic support from Hillary Clinton.

I thus believe the key to the Republican Primary Process will be the early states with closed primaries.  Closed primaries because they are the true measure of the Republican base who volunteer for and finance candidates of their choice.  I thus propose that the real question is which of the other candidates can win the nomination and earn the support of those alienated Democrats.

“On that day you will cry out because of the king whom you have chosen, but the LORD will not answer you on that day.”
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