It’s still early, but Mitt Romney is currently ahead in the popular vote 51% to 48% with approaching 40% of the vote counted, which he may well retain through the night.
Currently the election would appear to come down to Ohio and Florida. If Romney loses either it’s essentially over.
Florida would appear to be headed to a recount, with approximately 40,000 votes separating them with about 10% of votes left to count. In Ohio provisional ballot counting could kick in and extend the race well beyond tonight.
Given the tightness in Ohio and Florida a Romney popular vote victory and electoral college loss is just one of several possibilities.
Update: Romney just narrowed the 40,000 gap to 16,000 votes. A mandatory recount becomes even more likely. Fox is reporting that that the Romney camp expects the final margin in Florida to be 10,000 votes between the two.