That, and that you should ignore exit polls and “leaked” exit polls. Wait for the real vote totals.
My personal feeling is that you’ll be able to garner a lot of information from the race in Virginia.
- If Romney wins by 4-5% in Virginia you can be pretty sure that he’s going to win across the board.
- If Romney loses Virginia Obama is headed to re-election
- If Romney wins Virginia by less that 1% the race really is essentially tied across the nation (each battleground state will be very close) and there’s an excellent chance that you won’t know who won before you go to sleep.
If you want to have some nightmares in that case, read John Fund’s worst case scenario for Ohio.