The Only Poll Numbers You Need To See Today

As pointed out by Joel Pollak at Big Government, the latest CNN national poll of likely voters has some very good news for those of you following poll fundamentals, as opposed to topline percentages. Mitt Romney is has a commanding 22% lead among Independents. This is a post-Hurricane Sandy poll, so any talk of a big Obama bounce among Independents appears to be wishful thinking on the part of the Obama camp.

The following shows the voting choice for the various party affiliations:

Total 49%
Democrat 93%
Independent 37%
Republican 1%

Total 49%
Democrat 5%
Independent 59%
Republican 99%

Both Romney and Obama have locked up their core (though Romney has a slight advantage in party defection), but the difference in Independents is striking.

Of course the only way a 49% – 49% tie makes sense is if the sample is heavily weighted (D +11) toward Democrats. If you’ve been following the polls that should hardly be news to you.

Polls are now past the point of mattering. The CNN poll finds only 4% of voters still undecided. Polls aren’t going to influence them. The only poll the matters occurs tomorrow. Vote early, then remind at least one other person to vote. There’s no excuse to not vote…

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