University of Colorado Election Predictions

I was sent this link summarizing an analysis done by the University of Colorado predicting the outcome of the 2012 Presidential Election.  Overall the prediction is quite positive for Romney and Ryan.

The analysis is summarized as follows, “President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.”

Before you get excited, there’s reason to doubt the accuracy of the analysis:

In 2012, “What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Bickers said.

This would obviously be great news but the probability of Obama losing every swing state is unlikely.  I would more take this study as a reason to hope and to get motivated and to work for an obtainable goal.  But the race is far from over and it would only take a few Akin-idiots to shift things the other way.  Now is not a time for complacency.

The Man Who Approved Operation Fast And Furious Is Earning A Second Salary While On Administrative Leave
The first rule of fight club is you do not talk about fight club