Prepping for more water carrying during the upcoming DNC in Charlotte, the Charlotte Observer’s recent article headlines the only poll showing Obama ahead in North Carolina:
Poll: Obama holds onto slight lead over Romney in N.C.
RALEIGH – Democratic President Barack Obama holds a narrow lead over Republican Mitt Romney in North Carolina, according to a new poll.
Obama has a 49-46 percent lead over Romney, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning firm based in Raleigh. The lead is within the margin of error.
Then scroll down to the bottom:
Other recent polls by Rasmussen Reports have shown Romney up 49-44, Civitas Institute has shown Romney up 49-48, PPP, has shown Obama up 47-46, and Project New American has shown Romney up 49-48.
The article, of course, doesn’t link to the actual poll. Full press release is here. Buried down in the questions asked, we find this:
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Gee, +12 Democrat sampling over Republican and +24 over Independent. The poll also makes a big deal out of new residents heavily favoring Obama, yet doesn’t say much about the fact that the highest percentage of those they surveyed have lived in the state for over 40 years — a segment that Romney buries Obama 54-40 (p. 27):
Q21 How long have you lived in North Carolina: 10
years or less, 11 to 20 years, 21 to 30 years,
31 to 40 years, or more than 40 years?
10 years or less ….. .11%
11 to 20 years …….. .17%
21 to 30 years …….. .18%
31 to 40 years …….. .15%
More than 40 years .39%
Don’t discount the density with which they polled within the area codes either. The area codes with high percentages of those surveyed had counties with large populations that went to Obama in 2008. What I found interesting was area code 704, which covers Charlotte and the location of the Democratic National Convention, was a lower percentage than I would have expected. Code 336 has the Triad, with Greensboro and Winston-Salem. Code 919 cover cities like Durham and Raleigh. I dare say that the more rural North- Eastern counties in Code 252 will not be so heavily Obama leaning this time around given the ‘evolved’ position of the President on Gay marriage.
252………………………………………………………… 14%
336………………………………………………………… 21%
704………………………………………………………… 17%
828………………………………………………………… 11%
910………………………………………………………… 15%
919………………………………………………………… 23%
Much has been made about NC being a big swing state. Few remember that McCain took more counties than Obama did and that McCain only lost by 14,744 votes.
