A Tale of Three States

It’s been a tough few days for Barack Obama. The fallout from the failed Wisconsin recall probably won’t be fully known until November, he’s got an ex-President (that Democrats still love) running around undercutting him at every turn, and now, three separate stories about states that he carried in 2008 come out showing that he may have to spend precious campaign resources in what were once thought to be safe bets. I talked about Wisconsin last night, now, three more states that were solid blue may be swinging just a bit. He essentially needs them all to win re-election.

First the biggie, from the Detroit Free Press we have a report that shows Michigan in a dead heat, with Romney actually leading by one point. According to EPIC-MRA of Lansing, Romney now leads Obama 46%-45%, a change from April in which Obama held a four point advantage over Romney who considers Michigan a home state of sorts.

How could this be? Didn’t Obama save Michigan from the abyss? No wait, I’m sorry. He saved us all from the abyss. He just kept Michigan from becoming a third world country with Detroit as it’s capital. Oh. He didn’t do that either? Then I see no reason for people in Michigan to continue to vote for Obama.

Another biggie for Obama is the news out of Pennsylvania that former Governor Ed Rendell thinks the state is definitely “in play.” It could be that Fast Eddie just wants Romney to go up there and spend money in his state. Or, it could be that Romney really has a shot at Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes. Honestly, I don’t think so. If I were advising Romney, I’d spend the money that he would spend in Pennsylvania in Wisconsin and Michigan. A two for the price of one deal. Romney will have a better shot at Michigan than Pennsylvania, and definitely a better shot at Wisconsin. But I’m no expert.

The last nugget of electoral news comes from the swing state of Colorado. Rasmussen has the state dead even at 45% for Obama and Romney. Colorado was probably always going to be close, but it’s just one more place where Obama will have to spend precious resources. He’s got to carry Colorado to win. He’ll probably lose Indiana and North Carolina, two states he flipped last time, with Virginia not a sure thing either. If those three go, he certainly can’t afford to lose a fourth in Colorado.

No matter how you slice it, Obama has his work cut out for him in 2012.

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