Here’s an interesting post in the Washington Examiner that I think needs a little discussion. Gingrich appears to be making up significant ground in South Carolina, with an even better than average chance to win. Historically, the winner of the GOP primary has gone on to capture the nomination. Romney hasn’t had a good week with the quiet news that Santorum actually beat him in Iowa and now the Newt surge.
With many of us resigned to the fact that Romney would probably be facing Obama, what happens if Newt surges to victory in S.C. and then the eventual nomination? Is that good or bad? Will Newt’s negatives outweigh his positives in the general or will Obama’s negatives outweigh Newt’s? Here’s a sample of favorability ratings for Gingrich, Romney, and Obama. For what it’s worth, the Examiner appears to me to be in the tank for Romney. That doesn’t change the numbers, but it is worth noting.
Fox News, 1/12-1/14:
Obama, fav/unfav, 51%/46%, +5
Romney, fav/unfav, 45%/38%, +7
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 27%/56%, -29CBS/NYT, 1/12-1/17:
Obama, fav/unfav, 38%/45%, -7
Romney, fav/unfav, 21%/35%, -14
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 17%/49%, -32PPP, 1/13-1/17:
Obama, app/dis, 47%/50%, -3
Romney, fav/unfav, 35%/53%, -18
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 26%/60%, -34America does not love Romney, but boy do they hate Newt.
