October Snow

First, here is a science report that the American Geophysical Union published in 2005. The scientists who wrote the report are Allan Frei and Gavin Gong:

20th and 21st century decadal scale trends and variability in winter North American snow cover extent (NA-SCE) are investigated using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model experiments participating in the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Significant between-model variability is found, with most models underestimating mean NA-SCE.

20th century simulations are poorly correlated with observations, and, while individual ensemble members capture the magnitude of decadal scale variability, the variability of the signal is dampened in the ensemble mean, indicating that decadal-scale NA-SCE variability is associated predominantly with internal model variability rather than external forcing.

Two 21st century emission scenarios with realistic (moderate or significant) greenhouse gas emission rates produce decreasing NA-SCE trends, while one unrealistic scenario with fixed concentrations produces little or no NA-SCE trend. These results suggest that snow cover may be a sensitive indicator of climate change, and that North American snow extent will probably decrease in response to greenhouse gas emissions, although the magnitude of the response may be nonlinear.

Now here is the beginning of a report written by meteorologist Meghan Evans, which AccuWeather.com published on October 30, 2011:

A historic October snowstorm is still crushing New England with heavy snow and howling winds before cruising away into Atlantic Canada.

Snow amounts have already topped two feet across portions of New England, while record-shattering snow hammered the major Northeast cities from Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia to New York City and Hartford, Ct.

Now here is an excerpt of a report titled “Amarillo receives record breaking snow for Oct. 27” published by Amarillo Globe News on October 27, 2011:

Amarilloans woke to about 2.5 inches of snow on the ground at about 7 a.m. this morning, which is more snow than usual for the month of October. . . today’s amount breaks the record for amount of snow received on Oct. 27., which was previously set at 2.4 in 1911.

If anthropogenic global warming is suppose to produce decreasing snow amounts in North America, then why is there more snow at record amounts and earlier in the year than normal?



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