ObamaCare And The Irrational Behavior Of Incumbents

Kim posted below on Andy McCarthy’s article at The Corner. I had prepared earlier a post on the same subject with a different take, so herewith on the issue of irrational behavior and political self interest.

Will moderate Democrats obey Speaker Pelosi’s orders to charge into the breach while she tells them she is right behind them? Not a chance. I’ve made this point here before so I guess it’s time to double down. At the end of the day most if not all politicians do what is in their self interest. Why? Because that is what people do in their careers and that is what they do with their own money. To suggest otherwise is ludicrous. The ObamaCare reconciliation gambit is a bet wagered by safely ensconced liberal power brokers like Speaker Pelosi, who would forget the names of moderate Democrats thrown out of office in the 2010 mid terms in a heartbeat. However, these moderates are wise to this folly and that is why reconciliation will fail.

Would a vote against ObamaCare by these moderates save their jobs? No, it will not. But this is where the interesting dynamic of self preservation and self interest goes to work. The moderate Democrats in the House and more than a few in the Senate are the political equivalent of dead men walking. Their fate was sealed in 2009 when voters understood the full measure of the Obama/Pelosi/Reid policy agenda. They are engaged now in a process of political survival which necessarily includes anticipating a run for political office after the debacle that will be the 2010 midterms. These moderate Democrats are political animals that will not abandon en masse their proclivity for power (Republicans are no different).

Prepare for six weeks of bluster and harrumphing by the power elite in Congress, then watch the little people in the Democratic Caucus vote with their own pocketbooks and try to save their careers and any future they might have in national politics. Speaker Pelosi, safe in her San Francisco district, is estranged not only from an electorate that is energized but also from moderates in her own Party. She is manifesting the same characteristics and symptoms of failed Congressional leaders past like Jim Wright, Tom Foley and Tom Daschle. The difference this time is about fifty Democratic moderates that cling to some hope of a future after the 2010 elections. They will not willingly end their own careers as Speaker Pelosi is asking them to do.

You know the blush may have faded from the Obama mystique