If Scott Brown beats Martha “Marcia” Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate election today Stu Rothenberg says it could be “the biggest political upset of my adult life.” It will certainly be one of the happiest election nights in many Republicans’ recent memories. For Republicans to take the seat held for so many decades by the most prominent and influential liberal in the Senate should send shockwaves through the state of Massachusetts, the U.S. Senate and the Democratic Party — and just about everywhere else as well.
It will be fun to see how the Dems try to spin a Brown win. “Marcia” Coakley will, no doubt, be blamed. And George Bush. I can’t help but wonder how many Dems are going to tell Obama to stay away from their districts. A lot can change between now and November, but if Brown does win (especially as strongly as it now appears he will) the psychological effect could easily hold into the fall election. As Rothenberg points out, it will help the GOP recruit some strong potential candidates who are now fence sitters and could drive some incumbent Dems into retirement. It will give Republicans confidence and hope (yeah, I said it) that Americans are not only paying attention and don’t like the agenda the Democrats are ramming through, but that they are ready to do something about it.
I don’t like to rely on exit polls or interesting anecdotes. I am a nervous nellie and like to wait until the votes are counted before celebrating, but things look really, really good for Brown. So good, in fact, that if he doesn’t win the result will be a big shock as well because it would show all the polls to be so incredibly wrong.
Tune in tonight to see the results from Massachusetts. Just for fun click on over to MSNBC periodically to see what Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann are saying. I know it is a sacrifice, but if the results are in line with the most recent polls, it will be worth it.
Update: I just saw that Zogby thinks Coakley will pull it out, but only by a point or two. (Via BlogsLucianneLoves) It still looks like a Brown win to me, but I’ll be on pins and needles until the results are in.
Update II: Actually things are looking better than good for Brown. I’ve read some personal accounts from readers in my email and also read some being sent in to other bloggers and have yet to hear one that is not extremely good news for Brown.