I’m having a hard time posting on the Brown-Coakley race in Massachusetts. To put it bluntly, I fear the echo chamber. The right side of the blogosphere has gone from idle speculation through cautious optimism to outright expectation that Brown is going to win. I completely understand why. While there is still a chance that Obama could ram through health care before Brown is seated (most likely by making the House accept the Senate bill outright), the failure for the Democrats to retain control “Ted Kennedy’s seat” would be very telling. So the thought of Brown winning gives conservative-minded people hope.
But I also remember back to the 2008 election. I would read the analysis of polls and hear emphatically that there was no way that Obama would carry Virginia. The internals of polls were ripped apart in blog after blog. The current and ex-military personnel would never vote for Obama I was told. The same was said about Ohio. It was clear to many that Obama’s “clinging to religion and guns” comment would doom him in the blue-collar midwest. I wanted to believe that analysis and couldn’t help but feel let down as Virginia and Ohio turned blue on election night.
So yes, undoubtedly Brown is polling very well. Hot Air links this morning to two polls, one with Brown up by 6% and another with him up by 9.6%. Morrissey goes on to look at the internals of the first poll and decides that it is still has a liberal bias and is oversampling democrats. Just like a year and some months ago, I want to believe but my cautious side warns me otherwise.
This is still Massachusetts. Polling can’t account for trucked in SEIU workers going door to door and getting out the vote. Polling can’t account for ACORN shenanigans. Polling can’t account for liberal judges making biased decisions to keep certain polling stations open and discounting votes from oversea military personnel on technicalities.
Perhaps it is the fiscal conservative in me but the indicator I trust the most are prediction markets. At least in those cases people are putting their money where their predictions are. It is free for me to blog all day and claim Brown is going to win. It is quite another for me to put hard earned cash into a predictive market that says the same thing. So with the caveat that in the end I have given in and may indeed be adding to the conservative echo chamber, I leave you with the latest from intrade. Click on the thumbnail below for a larger image.
Obama did promise hope and change. This Tuesday, it is my turn to hope.