I don’t share Rich Lowry’s optimism, but over at the NRO he has an editorial on why Obamacare still might not yet pass. Here are few examples.
1. Public Revulsion. The bill was already under water in every major public-opinion poll, and opposed by a margin of almost 2 to 1 in the latest CNN poll. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put its support at freezing, 32 percent. A few ticks downward and the bill will be in the 20s.
4. Feeling Blue. “Blue Dog Democrat” is understandably becoming a term of derision, denoting a willingness to object only enough to be noticed before caving in to the Democratic leadership. Yet the Blue Dogs still have to be a worry for supporters of the bill. When Obamacare first passed the House, 28 Blue Dog Democrats, more than half of their 52-member coalition, were on board. This is a pool that surely includes some very nervous votes. As Michael Barone points out, nearly 70 percent of the Blue Dogs represent districts that voted for John McCain. A vote for this bill must look even more like a potentially career-ending decision now than it did the first time around.
Read his whole piece for all five points. What stuck me more when reading it wasn’t the idea that Obamacare won’t pass–I think Nelson’s defection has sealed that–but just how damaging a vote for the bill could be to political careers.
I can’t recall a bill with such low popularity being passed on a straight party line every before in history. As it happens, people are vowing it will trigger a tidal wave of change in the 2010 and 2012 elections. But will it? The next election is still many months away. While pundits and political junkies certainly will remember will your average independent voter?
Only time will tell of course but I can’t begin to fathom why a representative would vote for the bill when support in their state is so very low. It seems like guaranteed political suicide. While your average congressman isn’t that smart they are typically pretty smart about staying in power. Why not this time?