In response to the news that North Korea is warning of military strikes and disengaging from the armistice (see: Lorie Byrd minutes ago), I shared a note among friends also sending notes around on the North Korean “declaration of war.”
NoKor is rattling a very large sabre. They can destroy Seoul, but we can destroy North Korea. Less than mutually assured destruction.
They are – with Chinese consent – testing Obama’s passivity. He gave them every reason to believe.
But don’t go headlong into “there’s a war on soon.” North Korea still wants concessions, not casualties. North Korea will do nothing until China is ready to storm Taiwan. Wondering what that front is looking like right now…. Hmmmm….
In short, North Korea will be nothing more than a loud-mouthed neighborhood thug kicking over garbage cans until China is ready to take Taiwan.
I don’t think now is that time – though this is as much a Chinese test as a North Korean one. It must be recognized, however, that a demonstratedly timid Obama administration and American preoccupation both domestically (economy) and abroad (Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan) could prove to be too enticing for the Chinese. They may likely decide that there will never be a better time (vis-a-vis American intervention) than now or in the next year or two.
Oddly, our economy and not our military are the strongest deterrent protecting Taiwan. If our economy continues to sink – through natural cycles and unnatural government fiat over entire industries as well as exponentially accruing debt and a plummeting dollar – then the deterrent protecting Taiwan from China erodes and the enticement of Chinese aggression compounds.
Most won’t see it coming, and it will surprise many just as did 9/11. But the indicators for increased risk will all be there. Think like a Chinese communist seeking to restore Taiwan in fulfillment of the “One China Policy.” If you think like an American, you’ll be almost certainly surprised when it happens.
If you were Chinese, could you dream of a better time than with the current administration? I can’t. And I say that through logic from a Chinese perspective, not my distaste for President Obama’s policies, choices and ambitions.