Jim Geraghty shares from Ohio, for what it’s worth.
George Bush carried Darke County, Ohio, 18,306 to 7,486 with 70 percent turnout. I’m hearing some predictions that turnout there could reach 80 percent this year.
Bush carried Warren County 68,037 votes to 26,044 with 76 percent turnout. I’m hearing that turnout is expected to be higher there, too.
The sense among some GOP folks on the ground is that the turnout in heavily African-American precincts in some of Ohio’s cities has been light today, as of midafternoon, because of so many partaking of early voting. They see that as a reasonably good sign, that the Obama get-out-the-vote operation has hit its limit. These sources have been telling me for a few weeks now that they think McCain will overperform Bush’s 2004 performance and that the Republican candidate’s margin of victory will be greater than the two percent four years ago.
I’ve felt confident about Ohio, sans fraud, for some time. In the past 10 days, I have had the same sense about Pennsylvania. Virginia has worried me considering the massive demographic shift in NOVA. However, Jim also noted some anecdotal info from Virginia where the McCain campaign has shared that they are quite pleased with the turnout in key areas vital to Republicans.
I expect the exit polls to soon tell us that Obama has a 37% lead. Laugh. Remember that conservatives are far less inclined to stop and take a poll and that exit pollsters are generally in high population centers already weighted heavily Democrat. Whatever the exits say, they are about as valuable as a comic strip. This will be close. Exit numbers will not be.