The above image charting Gallup’s daily tracking poll has been atop the Drudge Report since last night. I disregard polls for their actual numbers for the same reasons DJ Drummond has explained in detail regarding faulty party weighting and various other methodology shortcomings.
However, I have always found them useful for spotting trends.
Notice the trend that appears in the Gallup image: McCain gains consistently once the vast majority of those polled actually have to go to work – and it tightens most midweek. The dates marked in the image are Sundays, consistently right in the middle of Obama’s biggest trended edges.
Notice Obama consistently trending upward during the weekends, while he consistently drops and McCain gains once the workweek begins. Obama would gain most from a Sunday Election and McCain from a Wednesday or Thursday election.
Take from it what you will, but I would suggest that when people are actually at work, doing what they do, earning what they earn, these working people trend toward McCain most. Would also suggest the saavy marketing/media practice of Friday releases to own a three day cycle has been successfully captured by the Obama campaign. Friday’s news stews during his biggest margins.
But again, once people are back at work and the news cycles return from quasi-hiatus (and Sunday Morning show Obama puffing), reality strikes for those on the fence, and more shift to McCain – or maybe more accurately, away from Obama.
Who knows what the real numbers are, but the trend is clear, and I think actually working and earning has much to do with a mindset revealing itself in the subtle but consistent trends.
Wednesdays and Thursdays bode best for McCain, but Tuesday is always the first closing day.
This may have something to do with why Obama has asked people to take the day off from work. Get out the vote? Yes. But also, get out of the mindset of working, earning and paying taxes on that. Because that’s when “spreading the wealth around” is not seen as “good for everybody” as Obama would like it to be perceived.
Funny thing about engaging in Class Warfare. It’s easy to gain allies when the group targeted perceives the “wealth” being “spread around” is someone else’s. But when the middle class – however they are defined for the moment – actually works and earns, they clearly see themselves (correctly) as being downrange as opposed to up-range on the Socialist firing line.
UPDATE: A reader correctly says in comments, “Gallup’s daily tracking poll is a 3 day running poll… so in a way the poll is 3 days old by the time it is released.” But, rather than “throwing cold water” on the poll as a positive reflection for John McCain, that’s even better. As I noted, his best days trended are Wednesdays and Thursdays. This would mean that his best trended days reported include numbers gathered in part on Tuesdays, making Tuesdays for McCain even stronger in reality. Might poor some cool water on the direct weekend/weekday assertion, but it does not poor cold water on the ‘Tuesdays trend best for McCain’ conclusion. It in fact reinforces it. And November 4, 2008, falls on a __________.