I pointed out in an earlier post that NC political campaign veterans Gary Pearce and Carter Wrenn both say Obama will most likely fall short in NC. According to Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling, Obama is doing great in the early voting, but McCain is making gains among those who have not yet voted:
The deciding factor for President in North Carolina could be the weather on November 4th. Barack Obama is banking a huge lead among early voters, 63-36, who account for about a third of the likely electorate. But John McCain is up 53-42 with folks who plan to vote between now and election day. A rainy day could be to Obama’s considerable benefit.
The tightening over the last week can be tied back to North Carolina voters reverting more to their usual trends. Obama had pulled to within 55-39 with white voters, but McCain’s advantage there is now back up to 60-36.
McCain is also doing a better job of peeling off Democratic voters now, up to 19% compared to 14% a week ago. The percentage of poll respondents listing the economy as their top issue is below 60% for the first time in six weeks and that may have some culturally conservative white Democrats back to voting on values issues instead of the economy.
Nonetheless Obama still leads on the strength of a 51-39 lead with independents, a 65-24 advantage with folks who didn’t vote in 2004, and his customary strong support from black and young voters.If they are right, this race is still anyone’s to win in North Carolina. I really would not be surprised to see either outcome. As always, turnout, turnout, turnout is key.