The Left is getting very happy with itself. Seems that some of the battleground state polls are going Obama’s way, and they figure to win big on November 4.
Maybe. But maybe not.
I will admit that I got a little depressed when I saw some of the recent polls, but then I remembered that state polls are, statistically and historically, far less accurate than the national polls, which is one reason the major poll groups generally do not try to do both. An exception is Rasmussen, which is chasing money, and media groups like CNN/Time, which are so biased as to make me question their raw data. More to the point, if you look at all the polls done in a state for a range of time, you see sharp differences in how some of them report things. And as I have always said, an aggregate of polls is actually less statistically valid than any one poll performed under consistent application of NCPP rules. Also, any poll predicting a result which is strongly at odds with the historical results from past elections, is questionable unless a rational explanation is made to explain the sudden change. To be sure, I am not rejecting the polls out of hand, but neither am I so naive, that I forget how many of the 2000 and 2004 state polls were wrong.
So, I have been chewing on the numbers. The thing is, there are 49 different polling groups doing state polls, and so it will take a while to work out the bias in the polls. Once I have something which confirms or dispels the claims being made, I will post it. But for now, keep in mind that most of these polling groups are people you have never heard before, who have a financial interest in the way their polls are reported, and many of whom have hidden their internal data. Treat ’em like used car salesmen until you have better reason to trust them.
On a personal note, though. I would love to hear from someone as to just why McCain would pull out of Michigan, when that state is so winnable and he has gotten a lot without much effort so far. I have made it clear that we cannot lose if we do not give up, but that depends on our candidate staying in the fight himself. Someone needs to remind John what an Obama Administration would do to this country, and why he cannot slack off now or concede anything to that Chicago crook.