Wizbang Primary Results

First off, thanks to the 79 people who registered a vote in our primary/caucus/WAG. The results are far too small to be scientifically significant, but they are still a valid sample of the internet demographic of our niche.

First, the Democrats. Here are the results from the voting:

OPEN
Obama: 25 votes, 38%
Clinton: 21 votes, 32%
Lieberman: 10 votes, 15%
Richardson: 5 votes, 8%
Biden: 3 votes, 5%
Edwards: 1 vote, 2%
Miller: 1 vote, 2%

Sounds like a good race, but here’s what happened when we count only Democrats and Leaners:

CLOSED
Obama: 4 votes, 100%

One identified Democrat had no choice, and the other 4 went with Obama. However, 4 votes is far too small to be reliable as a guage of the party intent.

CROSS-VOTING
Obama: 21 votes, 34%
Clinton: 21 votes, 34%
Lieberman: 10 votes, 16%
Richardson: 5 votes, 8%
Biden: 3 votes, 5%
Edwards: 1 vote, 2%
Miller: 1 vote, 2%

Republicans appear to be unsure of who they would rather face in the General Election, but they appear to be convinced that it will be either Obama or Clinton.

Now, the Republicans’ primary. First, the Open results:

OPEN
Thompson: 53 votes, 68%
Romney: 9 votes, 12%
McCain: 7 votes, 9%
Giuliani: 5 votes, 6%
Huckabee: 2 votes, 3%
Hunter: 1 vote, 1%
Paul: 1 vote, 1%

Thompson flat-out stomps everyone else, It’s not even close.

Next, the Closed results for Republicans and Leaners only. Remember that the Democrat side showed a big change from ‘Open’ to ‘Closed’, but not here on the GOP side:

CLOSED
Thompson: 52 votes, 71%
Romney: 9 votes, 12%
Giuliani: 5 votes, 7%
McCain: 4 votes, 5%
Huckabee: 2 votes, 3%
Hunter: 1 vote, 1%

Thompson’s powerful result becomes even more pronounced when the voters are only Republicans. Keep this in mind as we consider the as-yet-undecided state primaries.

So who did the Democrats like? Here are the Crossover results:

CROSS-VOTING
McCain: 3 votes, 60%
Thompson: 1 vote, 20%
Paul: 1 vote, 20%

Well, with only 5 votes total it is not indicative of a real trend, but it is interesting to see McCain’s popularity with the Left.

So, what does it mean? I’m not going to read too much into what the Democrats think from this poll, because we had too little participation on that side to really give a good look, but even a sample as small as 32 respondents can be significant in showing a trend. For Thompson to stomp the field as thoroughly as he did here, suggests that there is in fact a substantial base for Thompson, in spite of his results so far.

So what’s going on? Fred is liked by all conservatives, and from what I can tell the McCain people (like Medved), the Romney fans (like Hewitt) and the Giuliani and Huckabee fans go to great lengths to avoid a head-to-head comparison between their guy and Fred, but it was Hucakbee who grabbed Iowa, McCain who nabbed New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Romney who took Wyoming and Nevada. A lot of that has to do with the amount of money and time each of them had to invest, but it is also due to the character of the races in each of those states. Like Giuliani, Thompson seems to be playing for the South and the Super Tuesday contests, and he simply got into South Carolina too late to make an impact in that crowded field. It will be intriguing to see what he decides to do now, how he can – hopefully – finally tap that resource of promising yet so far unfulfilled potential. Here at least, Fred is far from dead.

As for Romney, he obviously has work to do to get the support of the base. No one I know thinks Romney would be bad for the GOP, but he’s no more inspiring than a glass of milk. Room temperature milk and no cookies. McCain and Huckabee, well, to me they played off niche strengths but I just don’t see them carrying the ball all the way to the goal line, not even the mid-field that is the party nomination. As for Paul and Keyes, they should follow the lead of Duncan Hunter. I don’t think they will, but in the end it won’t change the course of the party nomination.

That leaves Rudy, to my mind the second wild card (Fred is the first Wild Card and Mitt is the Mild Card) on the GOP side. SInce he has not yet won a primary, Rudy’s not getting any press these days, and his ‘wait for the big ones’ strategy is one which will prove to be truly brilliant or truly foolish with little chance of any landing in between. I don’t agree with Rudy’s social positions, but his promise to appoint conservative justices and judges makes that a lot less important, and I have to say I respect the man for not changing his positions to please anyone else. I hope we get a lot more debate in the coming weeks, so we can shake out which of the Wild One, the Wild Other One, or the Mild One would be the best choice for the party. Right now, even though he hasn’t wowed the states in the races so far, it looks like online Fred’s ahead. Way ahead.

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