Republicans are going to have a very difficult time taking back the Senate in 2008. As of tonight, it looks very likely that we would lose at least three seats – Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Jeanne Shaheen has apparently decided she will run against John Sununu in 2008, and polls show her leading by a very wide margin.
That does not have to be the case. Sununu would be helped tremendously by a strong Presidential candidate. Rudy Giuliani is currently in a tie with Hillary Clinton in the Granite State according to a recent Survey USA poll. Each received 47% of the vote.
In Virginia, Mark Warner has decided to run, and a Rasmussen Poll shows him trouncing either Republican candidate by double digits. That said, the same poll showed Clinton defeating both Giuliani and Thompson, which I highly doubt is the case. Warner most certainly leads in the Senate race, but I suspect the margin is not as large as reported.
The bottom line, however, is that Republicans seem set to lose at least two Senate seats. In Colorado, my understanding is that the polling shows the Democrat narrowly ahead. No Democratic seat seems likely to switch hands at this point. It’s time for better recruiting.