To hear Al Gore and the global warming hucksters tell the story in late 2005, global warming was going to make hurricanes so common and so strong even people in Nebraska had better look out….
Of course what Al Gore did was stand on the backs of dead people from Katrina to score political points. Not altogether surprising but still pretty repugnant. Meanwhile we have more Hurricane forecasting news.
Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) — Hurricane researchers, who forecast seven more storms this season, have flubbed the past two annual estimates because of unusual El Nino and La Nina weather phenomena in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
The predictions reflect variables that make this kind of weather forecasting “more art than science,” said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Two of the nine Atlantic hurricanes predicted already have occurred for the season that ends Nov 30. Last year, five storms emerged after nine were anticipated.
They couldn’t accurately account for El Nino? We’ve known about El Nino for almost 100 years and have a mountain of data on it; but it didn’t fit into their models? Yet they can model global climate for the next 300 years with laser accuracy? Sure they can.
Let me add though; we’re not completely out of the woods yet… I think it is a bit early to say they “Flubbed” the forecast. The Atlantic Basin could have a late season rally, but the conditions don’t favor it and either way, the forecasters would only be getting lucky to have the season live up to their predictions now.
But I am glad to see some sanity returning to reports about Hurricane forecasting…
Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005, during a “freak season,” Blake said, the most active since 1933. Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma all reached top level intensity and killed more than 1,500 people.
“It was an anomaly year, and probably won’t happen again for many years to come,” he said.
That’s a far cry from the gloom and doom Al Gore and his ilk where trying to sell. And of course, I’ll give you the obligatory reminder that Katrina was a Category 1 by the time she hit New Orleans and that the flooding of the city was a man made engineering failure. Even 2005 wasn’t the year most people think it was.
This story goes to the very heart of why all the global warming models are flawed. The hurricane models can’t contend with the variables from El Nino and La Nina which are climate phenomena we actually know a lot about. There is no way the climate models can accurately account for every variable for the next 300 years. It’s pure fantasy (and hubris) to think they can.