What Was Not Anticipated in Iraq

Dennis Prager makes an interesting point that I don’t think I have heard anyone else make in the Iraq debate. He contends the type of “insurgency” we have seen in Iraq was unanticipated and is the reason we cannot claim victory there. He is not saying the violence was unanticipated. He says many, including him, predicted violence — against U.S. and Allied forces, as well as violence between different factions in Iraq. What he says was not predicted by anyone is how many of their own innocent people the insurgents would murder.

Here is the latest example of this new form of evil as reported by the Associated Press: “Maj. Gen. Michael Barbero, deputy director for regional operations on the Joint Staff, said . . . the vehicle used in the attack [on Iraqi civilians] was waved through a U.S. military checkpoint because two children were visible in the back seat. He said this was the first reported use of children in a car bombing in Baghdad. ‘Children in the back seat lowered suspicion, (so) we let it move through, they parked the vehicle, the adults run out and detonate it with the children in the back,’ Barbero told reporters in Washington.”

These same “insurgents” routinely blow up children who line up to receive candy from U.S. troops. Likewise, college students are targeted for death, as are men lining up to apply for civilian jobs, men and women attending mosques, physicians in hospitals, and so on. The more innocent the Iraqi, the more likely he or she is to be targeted for murder.

I submit that there was no way to anticipate this. And no one did. This includes all those who predicted a civil war in Iraq between Shiites and Sunnis. I include myself among those who predicted savagery in Iraq.

It is, therefore, unfair to blame the Bush administration for not anticipating such a determined “insurgency.” Without the mass murder of fellow Iraqis, there would hardly be any “insurgency.” The combination of suicide terrorists and a theology of death has created an unprecedented form of “resistance” to an occupier: “We will murder as many men, women and children as we can until you leave.” Nor is this a matter of Sunnis murdering Shiites and vice versa: college students, women shopping at a Baghdad market and hospital workers all belong to both groups. Truck bombs cannot distinguish among tribes or religious affiliations.

If America had to fight an insurgency directed solely against us and coalition forces — even including suicide bombers — we would surely have succeeded. No one, right, left or center, could imagine a group of people so evil, so devoid of the most elementary and universal concepts of morality, that they would target their own people, especially the most vulnerable, for murder.This is the reason, Prager argues, we have not won. Read it all.

Leaving Geneva
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