It is now 2 AM on the east coast, so election day is already 2 hours old. Here are my final predictions on the United States Senate races.
Rhode Island – Republican hold
Pennsylvania – Democratic pick-up
Ohio – Democratic pick-up
Missouri – Republican hold
Montana – Republican hold
Tennessee – Republican hold
Virginia – Republican hold
The race I am least confident about is Virginia, but I felt Allen’s close was very strong. There is some indication that Pennsylvania and Ohio are tightening. I am basing my predictions on my sense that there was too much ground to be made up in a few days, but I would be more than happy, more than happy, to be pleasantly surprised tomorrow night. I see Republican losses of 2 seats then from our vulnerable seats.
New Jersey – Democratic hold
Maryland – Republican pick-up
Michigan – Republican pick-up
Most people reading this are probably wondering if I have lost my marbles, but hear me out. In 2004, Mitchell Research correctly predicted the margin in Michigan when other polls were predicting a more substantial Democratic victory there. As for New Jersey, I hold out hope and, as is the case with the above mentioned states, would welcome a pleasant surprise.
Bottom Line: I see no net change in the United States Senate.
In the House, I predict Republicans will lose 16 seats (2 in CT, 2 in NY, 2 in OH, 2 in PA, 1 in IN, 1 in IA, 1 in NC, 1 in FL, and 1 in AZ, and 1 in CO) but win 2 Democratic seats in Georgia to keep control of that body by the smallest of margins. And yes, I believe Republicans will pull it out in Texas 22.