According to Barron’s, the GOP is expected to hold onto both houses of Congress come November 7. From the Drudge Report:
JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers, BARRON’s claims in their next edition. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years — and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don’t see it.
Our analysis — based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data — suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber’s 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party’s loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.
You can read the entire Barron’s article if you have a paid subscription, which I do not have.
Update: Oak Leaf at Stop the ACLU has more from the Barron’s article, including this:
Is our method reliable? It certainly has been in the past. Using it in the 2002 and 2004 congressional races, we bucked conventional wisdom and correctly predicted GOP gains both years. Look at House races back to 1972 and you’ll find the candidate with the most money has won about 93% of the time. And that’s closer to 98% in more recent years, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Polls can be far less reliable. Remember, they all but declared John Kerry president on Election Day 2004.
But keep in mind, there’s only one way to ensure the result that Barron’s is predicting: conservatives must get out and vote for the GOP on November 7th.
Update II: Christine Mohan from Barron’s just emailed me with a free link to the article. So click on over and read the entire piece.
Here’s a portion that addresses how traders feel about Democrats:
IF WE’RE EVEN HALF right, and the GOP retains control of the Senate but loses the House, then there would be important ramifications for the stock market. Since traders often have disdain for Democrats, there could well be a relief rally, at least in the short term. “It would force investors to rethink some overzealous discounting of stocks,” says Chuck Gabriel, chief political analyst for Prudential Equity Group.
Fear of Democrats, he suggests, may be playing a role in the weakness in energy and pharmaceutical stocks, with investors bracing for a populist backlash against profits. “Elections may or may not be a driver, but it would not hurt to remove that headwind,” says Gabriel.