Jay Cost, formerly of the Horse Race Blog, has an important read about the 2006 election. Many people have been saying, some with quite a bit of glee, that the Republicans are in trouble this election cycle. Jay disagrees. In his most recent article at RealClearPolitcs, he busts the current myths that have been making their way around the blogosphere and mainstream media. Jay knows what he’s talking about; his analysis for the 2004 presidential election was right on.
Here’s a portion of his article:
The conventional wisdom has obviously congealed around the idea that the Republican Party is headed for trouble this November. Last week alone, I encountered nearly two dozen opinion pieces making the same argument. While I agree that the Republicans will lose seats in the House – probably about nine – I was also amazed at the reasons upon which so many professional pundits based their predictions. Many columnists seem downright naïve when it comes to congressional elections, content to repeat commonplace arguments without first checking if the facts fit the theories. In instance after instance, they do not. So many pundits last week were demonstrably wrong that, for the sake of sensible and prudent thinkers everywhere, a corrective is required.
Read the rest of it.