Last weekend, Stephen McCracken of Willisms.com hosted the regular Pundits Roundtable. This time, though, instead of inviting bloggers to comment on a question or two, he invited anyone to e-mail him their entries.
I’ve been invited a couple of times, and participated once, so I thought it would be fun to join in again, so I e-mailed him a prediction for 2006.
Unfortunately, nearly everyone else ignored his instructions and posted them in the comments. And my own prediction, e-mailed as he requested, got lost in the shuffle.
But I’m not one to bear a grudge. Much. Well, OK, maybe a small one. (Ken stinks!) There, I feel better.
But when life hands you lemons, choke on ’em and die. Er, make lemonade. I’m gonna take that prediction I sent in and expand on it a bit.
By the end of September 2006, at least one major figure in the Bush administration — cabinet-level or very nearly — will be forced to resign in disgrace. The Democrats will attempt to use this to taint the entire administration, and run with it very strongly in the congressional elections.
However, it will not work. The Republicans will either keep the current balance in Congress, or make very small gains.
Now, before anyone argues with me on this, I will repeat one of my favorite aphorisms: you cannot reason someone away from a position they did not reach by reasoning. This prediction has very little analytical thought behind it, beyond that nearly every two-term presidency eventually loses at least one high ranking official to scandal. Hell, even most single-termers suffer this sort of thing. But the rest of it is pure gut instinct, hunches, and other unquantifiable, unjustifiable speculation.
OK, there’s a little more thought behind it. There’s an old saying that you can’t beat someone with no one, and likewise you can’t beat something with nothing. The Democrats have yet to provide a viable alternative to Bush’s plans on any major issues beyond “we wouldn’t do anything” or “we’d do the same, but better,” and that’s been soundly rejected by the American people — and I don’t see that changing much any time soon. Like an alcoholic or a drug addict, the Democrats have yet to hit rock bottom, and in many cases that’s what it takes to begin the turnaround. A couple more election cycles ought to do that for them.
I hope it does. I get very uncomfortable when one party starts to think it “owns” the seats of power, and there are signs of that happening with the Republicans. They need to be shaken up a bit, to be reminded that they don’t have a divine mandate to rule. Bad things happen when you take people for granted.