Scientist (cough) are now predicting an ice age in Europe… And they blame it on global warming. Better- they base the whole prediction on one set of ocean temps they did not expect.
The ocean current that gives western Europe its relatively balmy climate is stuttering, raising fears that it might fail entirely and plunge the continent into a mini ice age.
The dramatic finding [STOP THE TAPE] comes from a study of ocean circulation in the North Atlantic, which found a 30% reduction in the warm currents that carry water north from the Gulf Stream. [STOP THE TAPE]
Stop the tape… A dramatic FINDING? This is not a finding. It is a conclusion at best but more accurately a prediction. The -finding- is that some temps were not what researchers thought they were going to measure. Everything after that is conjecture.
Never let the media confuse a finding with a prediction.
The slow-down, which has long been predicted as a possible consequence of global warming, will give renewed urgency to intergovernmental talks in Montreal, Canada, this week on a successor to the Kyoto Protocol.
Bogus New Alert! When the third sentence of a news story says “See, this proves we should agree to Kyoto” the whole story is officially suspect.
Harry Bryden at the Southampton Oceanography Centre in the UK, whose group carried out the analysis, says he is not yet sure if the change is temporary or signals a long-term trend.
I’m confused… In the first 2 paragraphs it was a done deal.. It was a FINDING for goodness sake… Now we learn that the researcher has no clue if this is even a temporary change or not? Maybe that haste over Kyoto was misplaced?
We don’t want to say the circulation will shut down,” he told New Scientist. “But we are nervous about our findings. They have come as quite a surprise.”
So…. You got some data you did not expect… From there -someone- (it’s unclear who from the story) FOUND that we were going to have an ice age if we don’t agree to Kyoto. This is getting thinner by the minute.
The North Atlantic is dominated by the Gulf Stream – currents that bring warm water north from the tropics. At around 40° north – the latitude of Portugal and New York – the current divides. Some water heads southwards in a surface current known as the subtropical gyre, while the rest continues north, leading to warming winds that raise European temperatures by 5°C to 10°C.
But when Bryden’s team measured north-south heat flow last year, using a set of instruments strung across the Atlantic from the Canary Islands to the Bahamas, they found that the division of the waters appeared to have changed since previous surveys in 1957, 1981 and 1992.
FOUR. DATA. POINTS.
4 data points in 50 years on a planet a few bazillion years old. They get data they did not expect, they have no idea why it happened or if it is just temporary or not but by golly there is an ice age acoming and we better sign Kyoto. OY! Talk about putting several carts before a single horse.
El Niño warms the water in the Pacific every 4 or 5 years and we’ve known of this cycle for over 400 years. [Long before the evil United States] Could it be that maybe -just maybe- something like this might happen elsewhere on the planet? (gasp)
No, we won’t look at unexpected data and wonder why we were wrong, we now look at unexpected data and draw conclusions. If we didn’t know the temps were going to be that high, how the hell can we explain why they were AND use them to predict what it means for the future?
I’m not even going to finish debunking this article, it’s not worth my time. But I will add, I really expected more from newscientist.com.