Godwin Wins In Virginia – Kaine Benefits

Disingenuity thy name is liberal pundits.

Take, for example, Josh Marshall’s writeup claiming that Democrat Tim Kaine’s victory in Virginia with 51% of the vote is more impressive than the numbers would suggest. I would suggest that a closer look at the numbers indicate that Democrats turned out the vote very well in the Northern Virginia suburbs, but generally lost up and down the state ballot.

Declaring Lt. Governor Tim Kaine’s victory over Republican Attorney General Jerry Kilgore a grand victory for Democrats ignores the stark facts staring them in the face down the ballot. Democrats lost the Lt. Governor race, are loosing the Attorney General race, and have no hope of closing the 60-38 gap with Republicans in Virginia’s House of Delegates. Republicans might actually have a net gain of a seat or two…

While some would argue that Kaine is riding the coattails of Virginia’s most popular Governor in recent memory – Gov. Mark Warner (D); or that he’s a beneficiary of the independent candidacy of state Sen. Russel Potts (R) who switched from campaigning for himself to campaigning against Kilgore in the final days of the race; the real answer is that Kaine won because Kilgore shot himself in the foot with a late death penalty ad campaign. Kaine strategists admitted as much this evening. It’s particularly instructive that Kilgore finished with 70,000 votes less than the Republican winner in the Lt. Governor race. That vote swing in the Governors race was more than enough to win a tight race against Kaine.

Invoking Adolf Hitler and the death penalty mocked Godwin’s Law of internet discussion threads. In essence USENET old-timer Mike Godwin postulated that as the length of a discussion thread increases, the probability of someone invoking a Nazi reference approaches 1. By tradition the person who invoked the Nazi argument is declared the loser of the thread.

It turns out Godwin’s Law applies equally in politics, just ask Jerry Kilgore…

Bonfire of the Vanities #123
Mary Mapes Still Doesn't Get It


  1. Boyd November 9, 2005
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