Just a few points I have NOT heard about exit polls.. And goodness knows there are enough opinions out there. In random order…
1) I think exit polls are becoming increasingly unreliable in part because we are separating ourselves geographically as well as by party. It is easy to poll the urban areas but it gets increasingly more difficult to accurately poll the more rural areas. This can make a very red state look blue. If you poll in New Orleans proper, Kerry won (probably) 8 to 1. But Bush carried Louisiana by like 17 points. I doubt many exit pollsters were in Cut Off, Louisiana.
2) I think the Bush people were far less likely to tell people who they voted for. With all the condemnation of Bush by everyone in the media (Hollywood etc) and the violence against GOP offices and various supporters, is it any wonder Bush people kept to themselves and Kerry people had big mouths? Seems in keeping with the whole campaign to me.
3) The exit polls (assuming they did do that for which they were designed and that is to see how which groups voted) showed that 23% of the gay vote went to George Bush. I’m far from an expert on these matters but it seems to me that a whole bunch of gay people would be more than willing to say who they voted for but not as anxious to tell a stranger their sexual orientation. That being a safe assumption, it seems obvious Bush carried far more than 23% of the actual gay vote. (sorry Andrew)
Ok just things I had not heard elsewhere. I leave any dot connecting to someone with more time.