Well, it’s 6:30 a.m. here and I just came back from the polls. The lines were pretty long, so it looks like turnout (at least in my ward of Manchester) is gonna be pretty high. I dropped my ballots in at 6:18 (there were two; the elections, and a city referendum question) were #s 181 and 182, meaning I was the 91st voter in barely 15 minutes.
I split my ticket. I voted for Bush/Cheney and incumbent Republican Congressman Jeb Bradley, but went Democratic on the other big offices. For governor, I voted for Peter Lynch and against Craig Benson. I’d had high hopes for Benson — a successful high-tech entrepeneur (one of the founders of Cabletron, now Enterasys) who has refused his salary, but he’s proven a crass lout and his administration’s been hit with a few cronyism scandals. And for the Senate, noted campaign finance reformer “Granny D” Haddock is challenging incumbent Senator Judd Gregg. I’ve never liked Gregg — he’s a tax lawyer who’s been on the public payroll for over 30 years, the privileged son of a former governor, and the leader and embodiment of the “arrogant rich” wing of the New Hampshire GOP. Granny D (she who walked across the country to draw attention to campaign finance reform) doesn’t have a prayer, but I’m sick of Judd the Dud.
I’ve been weighing my predictions for some time, and have absolutely no rationale or supporting logic here, but I’m going strictly on my gut. I’m gonna put it at Bush 51.3 %, Kerry at 47.5%. Bush at 294 electoral, Kerry 268. The total turnout will be around 133 million. And the Democrats’ lawyers will go absolutely apeshit.
(Correction: Crap, I meant Bush 294, Kerry 244. Thanks, Gary (and Samoyeds). I shouldn’t do that kind of math before breakfast…)