Oct. 17, 2004 — While the race for the presidency is close, George W. Bush has expectations working for him: Most likely voters think that in the end he’ll win a second term.
Even though the race has been a dead heat for much of the past week, 56 percent in the latest ABC News tracking poll think Bush will win, compared with 33 percent who think Kerry will. That’s a bit closer than in early September, before the debates revived Kerry’s campaign, but expectations remain on Bush’s side.It struck me that those numbers jibe with numbers I’d seen earlier this summer on the percent of actual Kerry supporters versus those who are just anti-Bush voters. You’d expect Kerry supporters to be confident of victory and A.B.B voters to be less assured, which is exactly what the ABC polling is finding.
One other quick thought, 33%+15%=48% which is within the margin or error of Kerry’s actual polling numbers. Where did that 15% come from?