Most polls show Bush ahead of Kerry by 4 or 5 points. Zogby shows Kerry over Bush by 1 point. The net effect? It’s going to stay this way right through the election.
Real Clear Politics and Election Projection are both excellent sources for the poll obsessed.
Me? I’m banking on the Washington Redskins over the Green Bay Packers on October 31st…
I would like to see the diffrent demographics of all the polls, that would be interesting. I have a feeling the would be a differance between the differant polls.
Zogby? He’s been accurate before, but there is an inherent bias on his part for the simple reason he said it was Kerry’s race to lose a number of months ago.
The others? Rasmussen didn’t change but a fraction of a percentage point (actually, both candidates fell off by that fraction and the gap stayed the same) after the debate, but what I blogged about myself, was this paragraph:
The debate didn’t change many minds, but it had a measurable impact on voter perceptions of Bush and Kerry. Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters now believe that Senator Kerry is politically liberal. That’s up six points from before the debate and the highest level of the year. The number viewing President Bush as politically conservative increased to 65%. That’s similar to his numbers coming out of the Republican Convention.
Those are NOT promising numbers for Kerry.
COULD YOU IMAGINE IF KERRY WAS ELECTED PRESIDENT AND SOMETHING HAPPENED BAD TO HIM AND HAVING EDWARDS TO TAKE OVER AS PRESIDENT HOW FRIGHTENING THAT WOULD BE ……………………..GET REAL AND VOTE FOR BUSH
“COULD YOU IMAGINE IF KERRY WAS ELECTED PRESIDENT AND SOMETHING HAPPENED BAD TO HIM AND HAVING EDWARDS TO TAKE OVER”
don’t say things like that, they give me nightmares
PArdon me for butting in, but I recently cruched both RCP’s and Rassmussen’s Battleground numbers and they look very good for Bush. If interested: the analysis is here.
Wait, the Browns are responsible for the Kennedy Administration?
If I had known that, I could have saved myself the last 30 years of heartbreak. (Except, of course for 1995-1999…damn Modells.)
There is something fundamentally wrong about cheering for Washington, ESPECIALLY against the Packers. But, alas, I will at least be mute that day, if not actually cheering for the Skins. I know tradition must be honored, but… man, that’s gonna be a rough day for this football chick.
John Zogby has been right in the past, but this year I believe he’s been biased. His brother James Zogby is the head of the Arab-American Institute which is pro-Kerry and anti-Bush. They have an agenda. I would have to seen the breakdown of party affiliation of voters for his polls. The ABC/WP poll shows Bush 51% Kerry 46%. A look at the tracking polls shows Kerry’s numbers remain pretty constant, while Bush’s goes up and down.
John Kerry will will in an Electoral Landslide IMO for 2 reasons:
1. The huge GOTV effort in swing states to register John Kerry leaning voters and the huge effort and money that will be spent to get them to vote is not reflected in the LV poll models and is only partially reflected in the RV poll models. There is a built in bias lead for GWB of probably 2% – 5% depending on the state.
2. GWB has not been able to shore up his base as indicated by this “endorsement” by conservative former congressman Bob Barr of GA (98% rating from the American Conservative Union). If GWB is still trying to convince Bob Barr and others like him to vote for him this could turn out to be an Electoral Landslide (320+ for Kerry).
See the devastating “endorsement”
Dave (the other one)
Creative Loafing? You’re giving us a link to Creative Loafing?
That settles it. DaveV is a satirist, even more clever than Liberal Larry. You had me fooled for a while there, Dave.
Just because he published his “endorsement” in creative loafing does not mean it is invalid. His “endorsement” is already getting around the blogspehere world and will surface in the mainstream media soon.
Dave (the other one)
In my opinion I also think most if not all of the polls are biased towards GWB. If look into the Gallup polling practices they give a 5 or 6 point lead to total Republican turnout over total Democratic turnout of all registered voters. Actual Election results in the 2000 election and 1996 prove that this is an incorrect varible to add into polling. In addition, most major polling companies haven’t been including the 18 to 25 year old demographic in their polls. This age group represents a huge block of new voter registrations…probably more 18 to 25 year olds will vote this election than ever before. In addition this age demographic is largely a Kerry voter base and its exclusion in polls throws the results further towards Bush.