The indispensable RealClearPolitics has a state by state polling break down, and a lengthy commentary by fellow RNC blogger Tom Bevans. He cuts to the heart of Kerry’s slide and Bush’s rise in the polls.
The most inexplicable aspect of this race right now is that the President continues to rise in the polls despite the fact that the violence and chaos in Iraq is getting worse. Iraq has always been the defining issue in this campaign and despite John Kerry’s best attempts over the last few months to turn it against Bush by attacking from every imaginable angle, it hasn’t worked. Maybe that will change as the violence continues into October and Kerry sharpens his critique, but I wouldn’t count on it.
The reason, I think, is very simple: America hates losers. I don’t mean that John Kerry is a “loser” in the stylistic sense – though he does come off a bit that way when we see pictures of his gangly frame in spandex bike shorts, windsurfing or throwing a baseball.
What I mean is that when it comes to the biggest issue in this campaign, Iraq, John Kerry doesn’t leave the impression with voters that he really wants to win the war. Everything we see, feel and know about John Kerry says his heart is not in this war, nor has it really been in any war.