SurveyUSA: Big GOP Bounce After RNC Convention

Posted mostly for its interesting methodology

SurveyUSA: Momentum Shifts to Bush; Big GOP Bounce After RNC Convention

VERONA, N.J.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Sept. 3, 2004–The number of Americans who think George W. Bush will be re-elected in November has suddenly jumped 10 to 20 points in dozens of cities around the country, according to SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted before, during and after the Democratic and Republican National Conventions.

SurveyUSA has been asking respondents not who they will vote for, but rather: who they think will win the presidential election in November. This question is more sensitive to changes in sentiment, and is designed to capture “momentum” swings more precisely than preference questions asked of likely voters. Tracking polls released today, 9/3/04, the day after the Republican National Convention ended, show sizeable swings in the public consciousness. …

[Examples at link -ed]

“The Democrats are eviscerated,” says Jay H. Leve, Editor of SurveyUSA. “Even in the most solidly Democratic corners of this country, a majority of adults suddenly believe that George W. Bush will win in November.”

I’ve always believed half of the election outcomes are self-fulfilling prophecies. The T.V. says who is going to win and a large hunk of the people will vote for the favorite just so they will be on the winning side. Odd behavior but it happens all the time.

Newsweek: Bush Over Kerry 54 to 43
Chicago Sun-Times can't subtract


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