Lies, Damn Lies, And Statistics II

Picking up where Kevin left off below…

A lot has been made over the political impact of Fahrenheit 9/11. I’m not that impressed for a number of reasons.

There was a report last week that the average movie now costs 6.04 nationwide. If you do that math (23,920,637/6.04) you get about 3.9 million people seeing the movie. (Actually the real number is far lower as most of the people that saw it were in NY and SF which have higher ticket prices.)

To put that number in perspective, this election there will be well in excess of 100 million votes cast.

Further, Moore is preaching to the choir. The media breathlessly reported that people stood up and cheered the film. This means obviously it was the goofball left going to the movie anyway. These people were hardly Bush votes going in the door.

The real question is, how will it effect turn out? History tells us the greater the controversy in an election, the higher the turnout. Certainly, a guy lying about the President and getting away with it has pissed off Republicans. Yet, I don’t see it helping the left. In fact it might be highly dangerous to the left.

Bush 41 lost to Bill Clinton because Republicans knew that nobody would vote for someone with Clinton’s background. They ran a horrible campaign because they never thought they could lose it. There can hardly be anything more self-satisfying to a group of goofball liberals than having their delusions validated on the big screen. They know that everyone is voting against Bush. After all, everyone cheered at the movie. Right? That is highly dangerous for turnout.

Lastly, history tells me this is a boon for Republicans. Mostly because every time we have one of these “big events” that is supposed to help the Dems it backfires.

The most obvious example was the ‘Paul Wellstone Memorial Campaign Rally and Keg Party.’ Even Clinton’s very election was supposed to be the end of Republican rule forever but instead gave us massive Republican gains.

Many on the left are excited over the movie. If I were them, I wouldn’t open the champaign just yet.

The End Of Western Civilization?
Lies, Damn Lies, And Statistics


  1. Diaz July 1, 2004
  2. Paul July 1, 2004
  3. Diaz July 1, 2004
  4. Christopher Cross July 1, 2004
  5. david July 2, 2004
  6. Ron Atkinson July 2, 2004
  7. Christopher Cross July 2, 2004
  8. Jess July 2, 2004
  9. TC-LeatherPenguin July 2, 2004
  10. Peter July 3, 2004