The Blogosphere is abuzz with the story that Ahmad Chalabi might have told Iran we could break their encryption codes. All the usual suspects are making the predictable comments. But before people go jumping to conclusions, stop and think about it. This story has many potential problems.
#1: Supposedly, the guy who we were going to give the keys to a whole country to, sold us out to that country’s worst rival. Why? How could they make him a better offer?
Chalabi worked for years to set up the “Iraq deal” why blow it sky high for no incentive?
#2: Let’s pretend it is true… Supposedly, after Iran learned we could break its codes, they immediately reported that fact via a transmission they knew we could break.
If they knew that we could break the code, why not use that as an advantage? If Iran suddenly learned that we had their phone tapped, they would not hang up, they would give us disinformation. DUH!
#3 If Chalabi did give Iran the information why on earth would Iran “out” him? Why would they give up a source like that?
I think there is a far more simple explanation. If Occam were here with his razor this is what he would come up with…
Iran suspected we could break their transmissions. To test that theory and to dog us in Iraq they transmit a phony message.
When it makes it to the New York Times, the Iranians knew they were right.
At this point it is all speculation, but I’m not buying the story as it sits today.
UPDATE: Rereading James’ post I realized I forgot #4. Supposedly Chalabi got this from a drunk U.S. official. No matter the level of intoxication why would a “trained professional” leak such incredibly sensitive information to someone with a shady background?
UPDATE 2: According to Gertz, I might be on to something.
UPDATE 3: Patrick Belton agrees and takes the time to make write the disclaimers I agree with but skipped. Summary: Just cuz this story stinks doesn’t make Chalabi a good guy.