Over at Hot Air, they're pointing out a news story that indicates the US might be prepping for an attack on Iran's nuclear weapons program. It seems that the Air Force wants a whole bunch of "bunker buster" bombs moved from the US to Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean where we have a whole lot of bombers -- and is the primary "safe" airbase for strikes in the Middle East. There aren't a whole lot of places that both have bunkers we'd like to see blown up and relatively close to Diego Garcia, and Iran's right at the top of the list.
I have my doubts about the story, though. Because I'm a bit of a military buff.
The two bombs specifically cited in the article are the ones the Air Force designates "BLU-110" and "BLU-113." The author calls the latter a "massive" bomb, weighing 2,000 pounds. Not surprisingly, he got it wrong.
The BLU-110 is a superb weapon. It does what it was intended to do quite thoroughly. But it only weighs 1,000 pounds -- that's about standard weight for a bomb these days. (During World War II, most bombs weighed between 250 and 500 pounds.) It's a good penetrator for blowing up hardened targets, but only moderately hard targets. Against really, really tough targets, it won't do much. And Iran's nuclear bunkers are really, really hardened targets.
Now, the BLU-113 is a bit more serious weapon. It weighs in at around 4,500 pounds, not 2,000, and has a fascinating history. During the first Gulf War, we suddenly discovered we needed a "bunker buster" -- and fast. So in seventeen days flat, we went from "we need this" to "we got this."
Seventeen days.
The GBU-28 (from which the BLU-113 is derived) is an amazingly simple concept that really should not have worked. They took the barrels from 8-inch artillery guns, buried them most of the way in the ground, poured in about 600 pounds of molten high explosive, let it cool, dug it out, slapped fins on the front, a guidance unit and a fuze on the nose, and dropped it off an airplane. And by god, it worked.
Now, the BLU-113 can cause Iran some serious inconveniences they were to suddenly start falling from the sky over their key nuclear facilities. But these "bunker busters" ain't about to bust the Iranian bunkers -- they've built them seriously strong. No, to maximize our chances of taking them out, we'd need to use the BLU-113's big brother, the bomb they call "Big BLU."
Now, remember that the BLU-110 is about half a ton. BLU-113 is about a ton and a quarter two and a quarter tons. Big BLU is 15 tons of bomb. And the Air Force has only ordered three of them. Maybe. Possibly more. For obvious reasons, they don't give out detailed inventories of such things.
Now, even Big BLU might not be enough to take out the Iranian nuclear weapons facilities. They might be hardened against anything short of a nuke. And I don't see Obama ordering a nuclear strike on Iran, even if it could be plausibly spun to the world as a "work accident" by those clumsy Iranians who tried to build a bomb and instead blew themselves up.
So, what's behind this sudden move of smaller "bunker buster" bombs to Diego Garcia? Beats me. Maybe it's to threaten Iran's other, less hardened facilities. Maybe it's for a possible strike on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal should the situation in that country suddenly go pear-shaped and it looks like Muslim militant fanatics might be on the verge of getting control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Maybe it's not for a threat against Iran, but an actual strike. Maybe it's just normal resupply movements, shuffling around inventory to cover possibilities. Maybe some Pentagon accountant had to suddenly burn up a bunch of transportation contract money, or had a brother-in-law who had some cargo ships that needed a job.
What is almost certainly is not is a prelude for a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. At least, not by itself. But it's certainly an interesting development.



Comments (25)
I don't put any stock in th... (Below threshold)1. Posted by GarandFan | March 18, 2010 10:57 AM | Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
I don't put any stock in the idea that we're about to bomb Iran. That would indicate that Barry's grown a spine. I'm sure the MSM would have reported this if he had.
1. Posted by GarandFan | March 18, 2010 10:57 AM |
Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 10:57
2. Posted by Hank | March 18, 2010 11:01 AM | Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Knowing Obama, he's probably getting ready to nail Israel.
2. Posted by Hank | March 18, 2010 11:01 AM |
Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 11:01
3. Posted by Matt | March 18, 2010 11:04 AM | Score: 1 (3 votes cast)
There could be lots of reasonable explanations, some of which you covered. It might simply be building a supply of quality weapons closest to the theaters that might need them. They could also be used against cave complexes in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
They could be for use against Iran, but not against the nuclear facilities. A more lucrative target might be the facilities that house the Iranian government, revolutionary guards bunkers, hardened infrastructure etc. A nuclear or non-nuclear strike against possibly nuclear facilities could raise risk of un predictable results. You could set off a chain reaction that goes out of control, launch tones of radioactive radiation in the air, etc. A strike agains conventional targets seems more appropriate.
3. Posted by Matt | March 18, 2010 11:04 AM |
Score: 1 (3 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 11:04
4. Posted by Alex | March 18, 2010 11:05 AM | Score: -12 (14 votes cast)
The question on whether US will attack Iran do not follows any logical and rational path.
If it is good for Israel, it will happens, regardless of interest or harm to US. Just like Iraq, Us payed four thousand lives and trillion of dollars and will pay trillion more for the care of the veterans for years to com, just because it was good for Israel, not U.S
4. Posted by Alex | March 18, 2010 11:05 AM |
Score: -12 (14 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 11:05
5. Posted by Roy | March 18, 2010 11:11 AM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
I think Smurf, Papa Smurf and Grandpa Smurf would be better names.
5. Posted by Roy | March 18, 2010 11:11 AM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 11:11
6. Posted by howcome | March 18, 2010 11:36 AM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
That warmongering BOOOSH!
6. Posted by howcome | March 18, 2010 11:36 AM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 11:36
7. Posted by Justrand | March 18, 2010 12:12 PM | Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
maybe Obammy was afraid the military would use them on him.
jus' sayin'
7. Posted by Justrand | March 18, 2010 12:12 PM |
Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 12:12
8. Posted by macofromoc | March 18, 2010 12:13 PM | Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
So, what's behind this sudden move of smaller "bunker buster" bombs to Diego Garcia?
The US Military doesn't make anything public knowledge unless it wants it to be known. A little Psy Ops maybe????? Keep the enemy thinking. A coup??? This seems like a way to push a coup in Iran.
8. Posted by macofromoc | March 18, 2010 12:13 PM |
Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 12:13
9. Posted by Hildebrand, The Insurance Warden | March 18, 2010 12:19 PM | Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
What's behind the move? ...Maybe it's because the government is running military ops now, and their goal, while ostensibly being to win wars, has in the past rather been to stir up hornets nests (domestic or foreign).
In which case, perhaps showing aggression, no matter how impotent, is all they think needs to be done.
9. Posted by Hildebrand, The Insurance Warden | March 18, 2010 12:19 PM |
Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 12:19
10. Posted by oaf | March 18, 2010 12:24 PM | Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
"Now, the BLU-113 is a bit more serious weapon. It weighs in at around 4,500 pounds, not 2,000"
"BLU-113 is about a ton and a quarter"
Those don't mesh.
Anyway, I am with the psy ops angle
10. Posted by oaf | March 18, 2010 12:24 PM |
Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 12:24
11. Posted by Fetid Dingo's Kidneys | March 18, 2010 12:37 PM | Score: -6 (6 votes cast)
Jay Tea, Hot Air (one of your sources) is always wrong, and as oaf mentions above, your entire piece is slap dash regarding technical details that a younger, more serious "military buff" would care deeply about.
I'm putting you on scullery duty.
Ground your gear and report to MSgt. Jones at the chow hall.
11. Posted by Fetid Dingo's Kidneys | March 18, 2010 12:37 PM |
Score: -6 (6 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 12:37
12. Posted by Cheney W. Halliburton | March 18, 2010 12:42 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Wow. The bomb is two-and-a-quarter tons instead of one-and-a-quarter. Burn the witch!
12. Posted by Cheney W. Halliburton | March 18, 2010 12:42 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 12:42
13. Posted by GarandFan | March 18, 2010 12:47 PM | Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
"Jay Tea, Hot Air (one of your sources) is always wrong"
And this from a guy who lives at DK and Think Progress.
13. Posted by GarandFan | March 18, 2010 12:47 PM |
Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 12:47
14. Posted by 914 | March 18, 2010 12:51 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Bye bye BryanD... Thanks for the input.
14. Posted by 914 | March 18, 2010 12:51 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 12:51
15. Posted by Jay Tea | March 18, 2010 12:56 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Dingo, my mistake was a simple one, already corrected. Hot Air has a very good record of being right, compared with, say, TruthOut, which I believe STILL hasn't changed its report that there was a double-secret indictment of Karl Rove over the Plame non-scandal.
Also, Hot Air's "mistake" here was in not correcting the original error by the Herald.
Oaf, thanks for catching my error. As I said, I already fixed it.
J.
15. Posted by Jay Tea | March 18, 2010 12:56 PM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 12:56
16. Posted by Senor Cardgage | March 18, 2010 2:54 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Since you're in the mood to correct your errors, take another look at the linked article: "Crucially, the cargo includes 195 smart, guided, Blu-110 bombs and 192 massive 2000lb Blu-117 bombs." There's no mention of BLU-113.
16. Posted by Senor Cardgage | March 18, 2010 2:54 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 14:54
17. Posted by Arizona CJ | March 18, 2010 3:23 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Why on earth are we thinking that effectiveness has anything at all to do with a US strike on Iran?
Here's my reasoning; If a strike on Iran is used as a late October surprise, I think that helps the Democrats, a lot. It does not matter if it is effective; by the time it's seem as a failure, the election is over.
The only question I see that's relevant is this; while I have no doubts Obama would throw his ideology to the wind to get himself reelected, would he do it to save the dems in congress?
BTW, Something about the linked article smells funny. All those bombs.. in 10 ammo containers? Also, if we wanted to keep that kind of a shipment secret, I think we would... therefor, I place high odds that this is either BS, or an intentional leak.
17. Posted by Arizona CJ | March 18, 2010 3:23 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 15:23
18. Posted by Sabba Hillel
| March 18, 2010 5:06 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Latest report is that this is actually an attack on Israel
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2010/me_israel0217_03_18.asp
18. Posted by Sabba Hillel
| March 18, 2010 5:06 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 17:06
19. Posted by GarandFan | March 18, 2010 5:51 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
That figures.
Rather doubt this will 'hurt' them in the long run. They manufacture their own tanks. What's too stop them from making their own bunker busters? I doubt it will be the fact that Barry will 'get mad' at them.
19. Posted by GarandFan | March 18, 2010 5:51 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 17:51
20. Posted by Boots | March 18, 2010 7:17 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
This is nothing but bs to distract us from the vote this weekend on the ObamaCare bill that a majority of Americans DO NOT WANT.
Look, over here, something shiny!!
20. Posted by Boots | March 18, 2010 7:17 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 19:17
21. Posted by WildWillie | March 18, 2010 7:52 PM | Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
I agree with Boots. Clinton was also good at using the military to take our eye off the ball. (Love the "shiney" comment)
Obama and other liberals do not have a problem dropping bombs because they do not have to worry politically about ground troops being killed. Everything Obama does is motivated by politics. What scum. ww
21. Posted by WildWillie | March 18, 2010 7:52 PM |
Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
Posted on March 18, 2010 19:52
22. Posted by Sabba Hillel
| March 19, 2010 5:34 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
This post seems to indicate that the whole story is false.
22. Posted by Sabba Hillel
| March 19, 2010 5:34 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 19, 2010 05:34
23. Posted by Don L | March 19, 2010 7:12 AM | Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
The CBO's report on Obamacarenomics
The CBO's report on a big D.C. wedding
Obama and Nancy Pelosi get married; big expensive wedding, big house, big future.
Obama gets all snuggly on the first night of the honeymoon and Nancy slaps him upside the head. He sits right up and in his best Ron Reagan imitation says, "I paid for this right so it's mine to have when I want it."
Nancy bats her botoxed eyes at him, smiles and says, "Yes dear, and you shall - but first you'll have to wait six years."
"What? Where did you learn that wee wee stuff?"
"You taught me it dear, when you showed me how we should handle Obamacare to make it seem like real savings. Have a good night dear!"
23. Posted by Don L | March 19, 2010 7:12 AM |
Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
Posted on March 19, 2010 07:12
24. Posted by Don L | March 19, 2010 7:16 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
What is the delivery plane on that 30,000 lbs of terror? It's not a Piper Cub I hope?
24. Posted by Don L | March 19, 2010 7:16 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 19, 2010 07:16
25. Posted by Mark L | March 19, 2010 9:36 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Jay:
Those bombs will penetrate Iranian bunkers regardless of how thick they are. It just takes more than one.
Drop the first penetrator. It digs a hole "n" deep through the armor of the bunker. Not deep enough? Drop a second penetrator into the hole created by the first one. It will go deeper.
Still not deep enough? Drop a third one. Lather, rinse, repeat until the final bomb explodes inside the bunker.
With precision guided munitions there is enough accuracy for this to work. It was what they did during the Gulf War 1990-91, and they have better guidance systems today. And generally they determine how many bombs they need to burrow to paydirt, add a couple to allow for inaccuracy, and then drop them 10 to 20 seconds apart so you do not get fratricide.
25. Posted by Mark L | March 19, 2010 9:36 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 19, 2010 09:36