If Scott Brown beats Martha "Marcia" Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate election today Stu Rothenberg says it could be "the biggest political upset of my adult life." It will certainly be one of the happiest election nights in many Republicans' recent memories. For Republicans to take the seat held for so many decades by the most prominent and influential liberal in the Senate should send shockwaves through the state of Massachusetts, the U.S. Senate and the Democratic Party -- and just about everywhere else as well.
It will be fun to see how the Dems try to spin a Brown win. "Marcia" Coakley will, no doubt, be blamed. And George Bush. I can't help but wonder how many Dems are going to tell Obama to stay away from their districts. A lot can change between now and November, but if Brown does win (especially as strongly as it now appears he will) the psychological effect could easily hold into the fall election. As Rothenberg points out, it will help the GOP recruit some strong potential candidates who are now fence sitters and could drive some incumbent Dems into retirement. It will give Republicans confidence and hope (yeah, I said it) that Americans are not only paying attention and don't like the agenda the Democrats are ramming through, but that they are ready to do something about it.
I don't like to rely on exit polls or interesting anecdotes. I am a nervous nellie and like to wait until the votes are counted before celebrating, but things look really, really good for Brown. So good, in fact, that if he doesn't win the result will be a big shock as well because it would show all the polls to be so incredibly wrong.
Tune in tonight to see the results from Massachusetts. Just for fun click on over to MSNBC periodically to see what Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann are saying. I know it is a sacrifice, but if the results are in line with the most recent polls, it will be worth it.
Update: I just saw that Zogby thinks Coakley will pull it out, but only by a point or two. (Via BlogsLucianneLoves) It still looks like a Brown win to me, but I'll be on pins and needles until the results are in.
Update II: Actually things are looking better than good for Brown. I've read some personal accounts from readers in my email and also read some being sent in to other bloggers and have yet to hear one that is not extremely good news for Brown.
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Comments (13)
I've seen some reports of f... (Below threshold)1. Posted by AJ | January 19, 2010 12:24 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
I've seen some reports of fraud.... a woman handing out blank absentee ballots and instructing people to fill in Coakley's name being the most blatant so far.
1. Posted by AJ | January 19, 2010 12:24 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on January 19, 2010 12:24
2. Posted by Steve Green | January 19, 2010 12:58 PM | Score: -11 (13 votes cast)
Actually those weren't absentee ballots - just photo copies of an absentee ballot.
Oh yeah, I forgot how easily Republicans are duped. Look at how you ran on the 2008 ticket for pres and vice pres....
2. Posted by Steve Green | January 19, 2010 12:58 PM |
Score: -11 (13 votes cast)
Posted on January 19, 2010 12:58
3. Posted by Stan25 | January 19, 2010 1:16 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
I hang out on a couple of chat sites that have a lot of UK, Canadian and European chatters on it. Most of them think that State run health care should be the norm in the United States. Of course most of them think that Obama is the cat's meow too. They are watching this special election between Brown and Coakley with some trepidation, because they have an inkling that Obama and his agenda is toast.
3. Posted by Stan25 | January 19, 2010 1:16 PM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on January 19, 2010 13:16
4. Posted by gollyneds | January 19, 2010 1:23 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
remember to thank obama, reid and pelosi. they will bring my dream of the past 30 something years to fruition; the complete destruction of the corrupt democrat party
4. Posted by gollyneds | January 19, 2010 1:23 PM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on January 19, 2010 13:23
5. Posted by GarandFan | January 19, 2010 1:29 PM | Score: 7 (9 votes cast)
"Oh yeah, I forgot how easily Republicans are duped. Look at how you ran on the 2008 ticket for pres and vice pres...."
More 'projection' Stevie? How's that Hope & Change working out for you? Economy getting any better after blowing $787 BILLLION? How's them employment numbers doing? 17.3% is a great number ain't it Stevie? You getting tired of all those "unexpected" numbers that keep coming up instead of 'green shoots'? Huh, Stevie? Want to rethink who got fucked last election?
Go drink your fucking Kool Aid, chump.
5. Posted by GarandFan | January 19, 2010 1:29 PM |
Score: 7 (9 votes cast)
Posted on January 19, 2010 13:29
6. Posted by Drago | January 19, 2010 2:35 PM | Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Steve Green: "Actually those weren't absentee ballots - just photo copies of an absentee ballot."
Steve, why is a democratic operative walking around on election day with photo copies of absentee ballots when the deadline for submitting absentee ballots was last Friday?
6. Posted by Drago | January 19, 2010 2:35 PM |
Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on January 19, 2010 14:35
7. Posted by Roy | January 19, 2010 2:38 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
It's a toss up: MSNBC, or a cable rerun of Scanners. Heads will be exploding in any case.
7. Posted by Roy | January 19, 2010 2:38 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on January 19, 2010 14:38
8. Posted by Steve Green | January 19, 2010 2:44 PM | Score: -8 (10 votes cast)
"Steve, why is a democratic operative walking around on election day with photo copies of absentee ballots when the deadline for submitting absentee ballots was last Friday?"
I don't know - off the top of my head I'd guess she's nuttier than a fruitcake.
But not as a nutty as reasoned, sane adults who pretend that this is actually a voter fraud issue. You guys aren't ill - you're just full of bull.
8. Posted by Steve Green | January 19, 2010 2:44 PM |
Score: -8 (10 votes cast)
Posted on January 19, 2010 14:44
9. Posted by James H | January 19, 2010 3:14 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Without speaking to the merits of Brown or Coakley, I think that the Democrats are in serious trouble if they can't hold onto a Senate seat in what may be the second or third most liberal state in the union.
9. Posted by James H | January 19, 2010 3:14 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on January 19, 2010 15:14
10. Posted by Jeff | January 19, 2010 3:38 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
stevie G ...
so your response is: of course she is not trying to commit voter fraud ... because she's handing out "fake" absentee ballots ...
and we all know that no polling station worker would ever accept them as real ...
because:
If she was really trying to cheat she would be handing out "real" absentee ballots ...
Is that your argument ?
So it's us idiots here at WizBang that are making a mountain out of a molehill and worrying about voter fraud.
Glad to see you've managed to keep that hold on reality . Just keep repeating ...
"Obama loves me, Yes he does ..."
tonight, just remember, valium and booze can be lethal ...
10. Posted by Jeff | January 19, 2010 3:38 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on January 19, 2010 15:38
11. Posted by Steve Green | January 19, 2010 5:32 PM | Score: -5 (7 votes cast)
"So it's us idiots here at WizBang that are making a mountain out of a molehill and worrying about voter fraud."
Well, I can't attest to your intelligence, but yes on the molehill mountain thing.
There are protections against voter fraud - but no protections against the electorate's intelligence and gullibility.
11. Posted by Steve Green | January 19, 2010 5:32 PM |
Score: -5 (7 votes cast)
Posted on January 19, 2010 17:32
12. Posted by JLawson | January 19, 2010 9:02 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Yep, just look at who won the 2008 election. A man who looks so good that nothing else mattered! Experience? Who needs it! Management ability? None! Ability to speak without a teleprompter? None! Vetting by the media? None!
Yeah, someone was pretty damn gullible in 2008, I'd say.
12. Posted by JLawson | January 19, 2010 9:02 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 19, 2010 21:02
13. Posted by retired military | January 19, 2010 9:06 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I peeked in at DU (the cesspool) and the only thing they were really talking about were the 5 votes that were supposedly marked for Brown.
I dont think Brown is going to need them.
13. Posted by retired military | January 19, 2010 9:06 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 19, 2010 21:06