Look at that Coakley graph! 97% at the beginning of January. This has to be one of the fastest implosions of any campaign. In just two weeks she has gone from a sure thing to a toss up loser.

Brown had a rally here in Quincy this morning they had well over 200 people show.

This id good, but I find the whole Intrade thing beyond stupid. Unless these are MA residents doing the trading then why is it given such creedence?

Michael,

Because Intrade is based on a commodity futures model where people are betting not just who will win the race, but also you can bet both that a candidate will win and separately that another will lose and get slightly different odds for each.

Brown is currently running at 54% while Coakley is at 48%. After the election each share of the winner will be worth $10 and each share of the loser will be worth $0. Right now I can buy a share of Brown winning for $5.60 and a share of Coakley winning for $4.88. I can also short sell Coakley winning for $4.50 (betting that she loses and I get $4.50 if she does), but if she wins I will have to purchase a $10 share to make up for that short sale.

Intrade has been a highly accurate predictor of elections and the spread that it gives is often quite close to the actual ballot result.

It's creative and very successful.

I guess I find it weird that someone in Utah buying Brown on Intrafe impacts the race. But then again I did not do well in stastics, etc...so this all beyond my ken anyway.

So when do the Dems start packing the ballot boxes? Or where they caught off guard, figuring Martha was a shoo-in?

Michael,

Intrade buying and selling doesn't impact the race, but it does provide an accurate gauge on public sentiment. Even if you are not in Massachusetts you would be very foolish to participate in that market without being well informed about what's going on on the ground.