Scozzafava quietly encourages supporters to vote for Owens (Wizbang)

Throughout the weekend so many stories about Scozzafava in NY23 have come up it has been hard to keep a handle on the situation. There were many rumors of Hoffman already running away with the election even before Scozzafava's decision to suspend her campaign.

So this morning around 10 AM I started up our NY-23 poll and after a few hundred interviews it appeared that Doug Hoffman was now running away with it-unweighted numbers showed him at 45% to 26% for Bill Owens and 17% for Dede Scozzafava.

Then came the news that Scozzafava was suspending her campaign. My first inclination was to just keep running the poll as is, but I stopped it and thought about it, and now for the rest of the weekend the first question will still provide Scozzafava as an option but also note that she's suspended her campaign, although her name will still be on the ballot.

How would the race play out now that is essentially (Scozzafava's name will still appear on the ballot) a two-person race? Nate Silver has a discussion of some poll numbers.

Consider the Siena poll out this morning, which has all sorts of useful cross-tabs. Scozzafava's supporters in this poll:

-- Have a favorable view of Barack Obama by a 64-31 margin.
-- Have an unfavorable view of Hoffman 15-57.
-- Have an unfavorable view of Democrat Bill Owens, 19-50.

Silver's analysis is interesting--follow the link above to read it. My takeaway, however, is to wonder how Scozzafava ever got the Republican nomination in the first place? New York Times columnist Frank Rich tries to push the meme that Scozzafava is a stock Republican that happened to differ in a few social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.

And Scozzafava is a mainstream conservative by New York standards; one statistical measure found her voting record slightly to the right of her fellow Republicans in the Assembly. But she has occasionally strayed from orthodoxy on social issues (abortion, same-sex marriage) and endorsed the Obama stimulus package.

Michelle Malkin isn't buying it. I'd say Rich would have a more convincing argument if Scozzafava wasn't now quietly supporting the Democrat. (Hat tip: Gateway Pundit.)

In her statement Saturday morning, the assemblywoman explained the reasons behind her decision: "It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so."

During the day Saturday, she began to quietly and thoughtfully encourage her supporters to vote for Democrat William L. Owens.

Is NY23 is a bellwether for the resurgence of a national conservative movement? Conservatives seem more than willing to lose with Hoffman than win with Scozzafava. Whether or not such an approach forms the basis for a strong national strategy remains to be seen.

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Section Editor: Maggie Whitton

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Comments (10)

And this was the GOP choice... (Below threshold)

1. Posted by codekeyguy | November 1, 2009 2:14 PM | Score: 1 (3 votes cast)

codekeyguy:

And this was the GOP choice? I know NY is a Blue state, BUT I thought the GOP here was still red. "Politics breed strange bedfellows", (but Scuzzyfava better stay OUT of mine!!)

Posted on November 1, 2009 14:14

Conservatives seem... (Below threshold)

2. Posted by hcddbz | November 1, 2009 2:28 PM | Score: 1 (3 votes cast)

hcddbz:

Conservatives seem more than willing to lose with Hoffman than win with Scozzafava.

What does winning mean? She votes with the Democrats on labor, abortion, and supports Stimulus. Her winning would just provide Dem with the cover of Bipartisanship. Why create a more radical version of Snow? Someone the Dems can always count on to cross sides critical votes?

Posted on November 1, 2009 14:28

Scozzafava, selected but no... (Below threshold)

3. Posted by klrtz1 | November 1, 2009 2:55 PM | Score: 0 (2 votes cast)

klrtz1:

Scozzafava, selected but not elected.

I wonder if the NY Republican bigwigs that selected her are regretting their choice now that she withdrew and endorsed the Democrat.

Posted on November 1, 2009 14:55

Question for Scuzzy:... (Below threshold)

4. Posted by Justrand | November 1, 2009 3:10 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)

Justrand

Question for Scuzzy:
Were you telling the truth over the last few months when you said Owens would be BAD for NY-23...or are you telling the truth now, when you say he is PERFECT for it??

Bonus question:
Do you have any concept of what the word "Truth" means? "Integrity"? "Shame"?
(ok, that was 3 bonus questions)

Posted on November 1, 2009 15:10

As far as I am concerned we... (Below threshold)

5. Posted by DaveD | November 1, 2009 3:16 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)

DaveD:

As far as I am concerned we can now lump Newt with Frum, Noonan and all the rest of their ilk. Guess the "big tent" doesn't apply when a RINO is on the receiving end. What did anyone expect from this woman anyway, isn't her husband a union official? If Hoffman loses it's better having a Democrat voting for liberal policy then some pretender with an (R) behind his/her name.

Posted on November 1, 2009 15:16

If you "quietly encourage",... (Below threshold)

6. Posted by sam | November 1, 2009 3:17 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

sam:

If you "quietly encourage", does anybody hear?

Posted on November 1, 2009 15:17

Moderates and centrists are... (Below threshold)

7. Posted by Tom | November 1, 2009 3:30 PM | Score: -1 (3 votes cast)

Tom:

Moderates and centrists aren't real Republicans. They shouldn't be allowed in the Republican Party.

Posted on November 1, 2009 15:30

Tom: "Moderates and cent... (Below threshold)

8. Posted by Justrand | November 1, 2009 3:36 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)

Tom: "Moderates and centrists aren't real Republicans. They shouldn't be allowed in the Republican Party."

Well golly...BULLSHIT!

DeDe Scuzzy was NOT a "Moderate" or a "Centrist"...and thus, no, she ISN'T welcome!

Nice try.

The Democrat Party is INFESTED with Far Left loons...CONTROLLING it.

Moderates and TRUE Centrists are welcome in the Republican Party.

Posted on November 1, 2009 15:36

Scozzafava is a moderate, a... (Below threshold)

9. Posted by Victory is Ours | November 1, 2009 3:45 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Victory is Ours:

Scozzafava is a moderate, and now she's come out and endorsed Owens the Dem.

It's the Bush effect, extended. You nutcakes put up one of your far right idealogue and moderates and liberals join together to stop you.

Bush. Done that. Move on GOP. Give Americans a moderate choice instead of pushing these far right conservatives and you might have a chance.

This is a stunning defeat for Sarah Palin. It's gonna leave a mark, and slow down her fundraising.

Owens will win by double digits.

Vic

Posted on November 1, 2009 15:45

VIO:Crawl back und... (Below threshold)

10. Posted by sam | November 1, 2009 3:51 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

VIO:

Crawl back under your rock. Sunshine makes you sick.

Posted on November 1, 2009 15:51

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