Jim Geraghty shares from Ohio, for what it's worth.
George Bush carried Darke County, Ohio, 18,306 to 7,486 with 70 percent turnout. I'm hearing some predictions that turnout there could reach 80 percent this year.Bush carried Warren County 68,037 votes to 26,044 with 76 percent turnout. I'm hearing that turnout is expected to be higher there, too.
The sense among some GOP folks on the ground is that the turnout in heavily African-American precincts in some of Ohio's cities has been light today, as of midafternoon, because of so many partaking of early voting. They see that as a reasonably good sign, that the Obama get-out-the-vote operation has hit its limit. These sources have been telling me for a few weeks now that they think McCain will overperform Bush's 2004 performance and that the Republican candidate's margin of victory will be greater than the two percent four years ago.
I've felt confident about Ohio, sans fraud, for some time. In the past 10 days, I have had the same sense about Pennsylvania. Virginia has worried me considering the massive demographic shift in NOVA. However, Jim also noted some anecdotal info from Virginia where the McCain campaign has shared that they are quite pleased with the turnout in key areas vital to Republicans.
I expect the exit polls to soon tell us that Obama has a 37% lead. Laugh. Remember that conservatives are far less inclined to stop and take a poll and that exit pollsters are generally in high population centers already weighted heavily Democrat. Whatever the exits say, they are about as valuable as a comic strip. This will be close. Exit numbers will not be.
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2008 Presidential Race
Comments (9)
SteveWhy do you th... (Below threshold)1. Posted by HughS | November 4, 2008 6:11 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Steve
Why do you think PA might go McCain? I haven't seen evidence of a major shift yet. Would appreciate your thoughts.
I agree on Ohio mainly because of my proximity to the state.
1. Posted by HughS | November 4, 2008 6:11 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on November 4, 2008 18:11
2. Posted by Sheik Yur Bouty | November 4, 2008 6:17 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
HughS,
Read this.
There's some interesting analysis for you considering Ohio borders PA.
2. Posted by Sheik Yur Bouty | November 4, 2008 6:17 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on November 4, 2008 18:17
3. Posted by RA | November 4, 2008 6:20 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
I don't think anyone should place too much trust in exit polls. Even though none of us like to wait for the real results, that's pretty much what we have to do. People should, IMO, just go out and vote as they see fit.
3. Posted by RA | November 4, 2008 6:20 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on November 4, 2008 18:20
4. Posted by HughS | November 4, 2008 6:24 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Thanks Sheik Yur Bouty
Will do.
4. Posted by HughS | November 4, 2008 6:24 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on November 4, 2008 18:24
5. Posted by retired military | November 4, 2008 6:30 PM | Score: 1 (3 votes cast)
Is it my imagination or are the trolls taking a holiday today? Maybe they are too concerned to show up and spread their usual swill.
5. Posted by retired military | November 4, 2008 6:30 PM |
Score: 1 (3 votes cast)
Posted on November 4, 2008 18:30
6. Posted by brainy435 | November 4, 2008 6:47 PM | Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
I voted for McCain in NE Ohio today. Polls close here in 45 min. Will be an interesting night.
6. Posted by brainy435 | November 4, 2008 6:47 PM |
Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on November 4, 2008 18:47
7. Posted by Steve Schippert | November 4, 2008 6:53 PM | Score: 1 (3 votes cast)
Trolls are busy voting. It takes all day to travel to seven different polling places to vote so many times.
7. Posted by Steve Schippert | November 4, 2008 6:53 PM |
Score: 1 (3 votes cast)
Posted on November 4, 2008 18:53
8. Posted by Steve Schippert | November 4, 2008 6:55 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
HughS -
As I said, I just "felt that way." I think there has been so much of the charges of racism and calling them rednecks instead as some sort of apology, that this quietly simmers among the non-Philly central and western PA voters.
We'll see. McCain camp is calling PA too close to call at the moment. Both candidates weren't working PA so heavily because it wasn't.
8. Posted by Steve Schippert | November 4, 2008 6:55 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on November 4, 2008 18:55
9. Posted by epador | November 4, 2008 8:08 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
SS beat me to it. ;-)
9. Posted by epador | November 4, 2008 8:08 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 4, 2008 20:08